Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013
This study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of ne...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
PAGEPress Publications
2016-05-01
|
| Series: | Geospatial Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/455 |
| _version_ | 1818684295846297600 |
|---|---|
| author | Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov Kanatzhan K. Beisembayev Fedor I. Кorennoy Gulzhan N. Yessembekova Dosym B. Кushubaev Ablaikhan S. Кadyrov |
| author_facet | Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov Kanatzhan K. Beisembayev Fedor I. Кorennoy Gulzhan N. Yessembekova Dosym B. Кushubaev Ablaikhan S. Кadyrov |
| author_sort | Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of new outbreaks in case of emergence of the disease in new territories. We considered cases of rabies in animals in RK from 2010 to 2013, recorded by regional veterinary services. Statistically significant space-time clusters of outbreaks in three subpopulations were detected by means of Kulldorff Scan statistics. Theoretical curves were then fitted to epidemiological data within each cluster assuming exponential initial growth, which was followed up by calculation of the basic reproductive ratio R<sub>0</sub>. For farm animals, the value of R<sub>0</sub> was 1.62 (1.11-2.26) and for wild animals 1.84 (1.08- 3.13), while it was close to 1 for domestic animals. Using the values obtained, an initial phase of possible epidemic was simulated in order to predict the expected number of secondary cases if the disease were introduced into a new area. The possible number of new cases for 20 weeks was estimated at 5 (1-16) for farm animals, 17 (1-113) for wild animals and about 1 in the category of domestic animals. These results have been used to produce set of recommendations for organising of preventive and contra-epizootic measures against rabies expected to be applied by state veterinarian services. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:48:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-875a056b77a944e3a98dbc3c2d07960f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1827-1987 1970-7096 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:48:22Z |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | PAGEPress Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geospatial Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-875a056b77a944e3a98dbc3c2d07960f2022-12-21T21:52:03ZengPAGEPress PublicationsGeospatial Health1827-19871970-70962016-05-0111210.4081/gh.2016.455380Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov0Kanatzhan K. Beisembayev1Fedor I. Кorennoy2Gulzhan N. Yessembekova3Dosym B. Кushubaev4Ablaikhan S. Кadyrov5S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, AstanaS. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, AstanaFederal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH), VladimirS. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, AstanaS. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, AstanaS. Seifullin Kazakh Agro-Technical University, AstanaThis study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of new outbreaks in case of emergence of the disease in new territories. We considered cases of rabies in animals in RK from 2010 to 2013, recorded by regional veterinary services. Statistically significant space-time clusters of outbreaks in three subpopulations were detected by means of Kulldorff Scan statistics. Theoretical curves were then fitted to epidemiological data within each cluster assuming exponential initial growth, which was followed up by calculation of the basic reproductive ratio R<sub>0</sub>. For farm animals, the value of R<sub>0</sub> was 1.62 (1.11-2.26) and for wild animals 1.84 (1.08- 3.13), while it was close to 1 for domestic animals. Using the values obtained, an initial phase of possible epidemic was simulated in order to predict the expected number of secondary cases if the disease were introduced into a new area. The possible number of new cases for 20 weeks was estimated at 5 (1-16) for farm animals, 17 (1-113) for wild animals and about 1 in the category of domestic animals. These results have been used to produce set of recommendations for organising of preventive and contra-epizootic measures against rabies expected to be applied by state veterinarian services.http://www.geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/455KazakhstanRabiesSpatio-temporal patternsGIS |
| spellingShingle | Sarsenbay K. Abdrakhmanov Kanatzhan K. Beisembayev Fedor I. Кorennoy Gulzhan N. Yessembekova Dosym B. Кushubaev Ablaikhan S. Кadyrov Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 Geospatial Health Kazakhstan Rabies Spatio-temporal patterns GIS |
| title | Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 |
| title_full | Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 |
| title_fullStr | Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 |
| title_short | Revealing spatio-temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010-2013 |
| title_sort | revealing spatio temporal patterns of rabies spread among various categories of animals in the republic of kazakhstan 2010 2013 |
| topic | Kazakhstan Rabies Spatio-temporal patterns GIS |
| url | http://www.geospatialhealth.net/index.php/gh/article/view/455 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sarsenbaykabdrakhmanov revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 AT kanatzhankbeisembayev revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 AT fedorikorennoy revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 AT gulzhannyessembekova revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 AT dosymbkushubaev revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 AT ablaikhanskadyrov revealingspatiotemporalpatternsofrabiesspreadamongvariouscategoriesofanimalsintherepublicofkazakhstan20102013 |