A review of the Granger-causality fallacy
Methods used to infer causal relations from data rather than knowledge of mechanisms are most helpful and exploited only if the theoretical background is insufficient or experimentation impossible. The review of literature shows that when an investigator ha...
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | deu |
| Published: |
Editura ASE Bucuresti
2015-05-01
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| Series: | The Journal of Philosophical Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://jpe.ro/pdf.php?id=7116
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| _version_ | 1811253497495027712 |
|---|---|
| author | Mariusz Maziarz |
| author_facet | Mariusz Maziarz |
| author_sort | Mariusz Maziarz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Methods used to infer causal relations from data rather than
knowledge of mechanisms are most helpful and exploited only if the
theoretical background is insufficient or experimentation impossible.
The review of literature shows that when an investigator has no prior
knowledge of the researched phenomenon, no result of the Granger-
causality test has any epistemic utility due to different possible
interpretations. (1) Rejecting the null in one of the tests can be
interpreted as either a true causal relation, opposite direction of the true
causation, instant causality, time series cointegration, not frequent
enough sampling, etc. (2) Bi-directional Granger causality can be read
either as instant causality or common cause fallacy. (3) Non-rejection of
both nulls possibly means either indirect or nonlinear causality, or no
causal relation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:51:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-87b038b76d66432a88618b7517c06ba7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1843-2298 1844-8208 |
| language | deu |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:51:56Z |
| publishDate | 2015-05-01 |
| publisher | Editura ASE Bucuresti |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Journal of Philosophical Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-87b038b76d66432a88618b7517c06ba72022-12-22T03:24:23ZdeuEditura ASE BucurestiThe Journal of Philosophical Economics1843-22981844-82082015-05-01VIII286105A review of the Granger-causality fallacyMariusz Maziarz0 Warsaw School of Economics Methods used to infer causal relations from data rather than knowledge of mechanisms are most helpful and exploited only if the theoretical background is insufficient or experimentation impossible. The review of literature shows that when an investigator has no prior knowledge of the researched phenomenon, no result of the Granger- causality test has any epistemic utility due to different possible interpretations. (1) Rejecting the null in one of the tests can be interpreted as either a true causal relation, opposite direction of the true causation, instant causality, time series cointegration, not frequent enough sampling, etc. (2) Bi-directional Granger causality can be read either as instant causality or common cause fallacy. (3) Non-rejection of both nulls possibly means either indirect or nonlinear causality, or no causal relation. http://jpe.ro/pdf.php?id=7116 Granger-causalityepistemology of causalitycausality testing |
| spellingShingle | Mariusz Maziarz A review of the Granger-causality fallacy The Journal of Philosophical Economics Granger-causality epistemology of causality causality testing |
| title | A review of the Granger-causality fallacy |
| title_full | A review of the Granger-causality fallacy |
| title_fullStr | A review of the Granger-causality fallacy |
| title_full_unstemmed | A review of the Granger-causality fallacy |
| title_short | A review of the Granger-causality fallacy |
| title_sort | review of the granger causality fallacy |
| topic | Granger-causality epistemology of causality causality testing |
| url |
http://jpe.ro/pdf.php?id=7116
|
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mariuszmaziarz areviewofthegrangercausalityfallacy AT mariuszmaziarz reviewofthegrangercausalityfallacy |