Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceani...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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F1000 Research Ltd
2022-06-01
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| Series: | F1000Research |
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| Online Access: | https://f1000research.com/articles/11-127/v3 |
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| author | Cathy J. McDonald Jacqueline L. De La Cour Derek P. Manzello Blake L. Spady Gang Liu William J. Skirving |
| author_facet | Cathy J. McDonald Jacqueline L. De La Cour Derek P. Manzello Blake L. Spady Gang Liu William J. Skirving |
| author_sort | Cathy J. McDonald |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T21:43:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-87b3fec64d14483996e83b10a230a473 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2046-1402 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T21:43:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | F1000 Research Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | F1000Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-87b3fec64d14483996e83b10a230a4732022-12-22T02:28:40ZengF1000 Research LtdF1000Research2046-14022022-06-0111134629Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]Cathy J. McDonald0Jacqueline L. De La Cour1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9070-1502Derek P. Manzello2Blake L. Spady3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2426-7805Gang Liu4William J. Skirving5ReefSense Pty, Ltd., P.O. Box 343, Aitkenvale, Queensland, 4814, AustraliaCenter for Satellite Applications and Research, Satellite Oceanography and Climate Division, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USACenter for Satellite Applications and Research, Satellite Oceanography and Climate Division, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USACenter for Satellite Applications and Research, Satellite Oceanography and Climate Division, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USACenter for Satellite Applications and Research, Satellite Oceanography and Climate Division, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USACenter for Satellite Applications and Research, Satellite Oceanography and Climate Division, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USAThe Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system.https://f1000research.com/articles/11-127/v3Background temperature Bleaching Coral Degree Heating Week Great Barrier Reef heat stresseng |
| spellingShingle | Cathy J. McDonald Jacqueline L. De La Cour Derek P. Manzello Blake L. Spady Gang Liu William J. Skirving Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] F1000Research Background temperature Bleaching Coral Degree Heating Week Great Barrier Reef heat stress eng |
| title | Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_full | Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_fullStr | Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_short | Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_sort | unprecedented early summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the great barrier reef 2021 2022 version 3 peer review 2 approved 1 approved with reservations |
| topic | Background temperature Bleaching Coral Degree Heating Week Great Barrier Reef heat stress eng |
| url | https://f1000research.com/articles/11-127/v3 |
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