Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections

Weather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcin...

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Main Author: Nick Martin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-11-01
Series:Hydrology
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219
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author Nick Martin
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author_sort Nick Martin
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description Weather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcing. A stochastic weather generator (WG) is a statistical model of daily weather sequences designed to simulate or represent a climate description. A WG provides a means to generate stochastic, future weather forcing to drive a water budget model to produce future water resource projections. Observed drought magnitude and human-induced climate change likelihood from a weather attribution study provide targets for WG calibration. The attribution-constrained WG approximately reproduces the five-fold increase in probability attributed to observed drought magnitude under climate change. A future (2031–2060) climate description produced by the calibrated WG is significantly hotter, with lower expected soil moisture than the future description obtained from global climate model (GCM) simulation results. The attribution-constrained WG describes future conditions where historical extreme and severe droughts are significantly more likely to occur.
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spelling doaj.art-87eae134c53243a296b2f256e01506682023-12-22T14:12:56ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382023-11-01101221910.3390/hydrology10120219Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget ProjectionsNick Martin0Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX 78238, USAWeather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcing. A stochastic weather generator (WG) is a statistical model of daily weather sequences designed to simulate or represent a climate description. A WG provides a means to generate stochastic, future weather forcing to drive a water budget model to produce future water resource projections. Observed drought magnitude and human-induced climate change likelihood from a weather attribution study provide targets for WG calibration. The attribution-constrained WG approximately reproduces the five-fold increase in probability attributed to observed drought magnitude under climate change. A future (2031–2060) climate description produced by the calibrated WG is significantly hotter, with lower expected soil moisture than the future description obtained from global climate model (GCM) simulation results. The attribution-constrained WG describes future conditions where historical extreme and severe droughts are significantly more likely to occur.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219weather attributionstochastic weather generatorhuman-induced climate changewater balance modelsevere drought
spellingShingle Nick Martin
Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
Hydrology
weather attribution
stochastic weather generator
human-induced climate change
water balance model
severe drought
title Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
title_full Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
title_fullStr Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
title_full_unstemmed Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
title_short Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
title_sort incorporating weather attribution to future water budget projections
topic weather attribution
stochastic weather generator
human-induced climate change
water balance model
severe drought
url https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219
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