Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections
Weather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcin...
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Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2023-11-01
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Series: | Hydrology |
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Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219 |
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author | Nick Martin |
author_facet | Nick Martin |
author_sort | Nick Martin |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Weather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcing. A stochastic weather generator (WG) is a statistical model of daily weather sequences designed to simulate or represent a climate description. A WG provides a means to generate stochastic, future weather forcing to drive a water budget model to produce future water resource projections. Observed drought magnitude and human-induced climate change likelihood from a weather attribution study provide targets for WG calibration. The attribution-constrained WG approximately reproduces the five-fold increase in probability attributed to observed drought magnitude under climate change. A future (2031–2060) climate description produced by the calibrated WG is significantly hotter, with lower expected soil moisture than the future description obtained from global climate model (GCM) simulation results. The attribution-constrained WG describes future conditions where historical extreme and severe droughts are significantly more likely to occur. |
first_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:42:51Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-87eae134c53243a296b2f256e0150668 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2306-5338 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-03-08T20:42:51Z |
publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
publisher | MDPI AG |
record_format | Article |
series | Hydrology |
spelling | doaj.art-87eae134c53243a296b2f256e01506682023-12-22T14:12:56ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382023-11-01101221910.3390/hydrology10120219Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget ProjectionsNick Martin0Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX 78238, USAWeather attribution is a scientific study that estimates the relative likelihood of an observed weather event occurring under different climate regimes. Water budget models are widely used tools that can estimate future water resource management and conservation conditions using daily weather forcing. A stochastic weather generator (WG) is a statistical model of daily weather sequences designed to simulate or represent a climate description. A WG provides a means to generate stochastic, future weather forcing to drive a water budget model to produce future water resource projections. Observed drought magnitude and human-induced climate change likelihood from a weather attribution study provide targets for WG calibration. The attribution-constrained WG approximately reproduces the five-fold increase in probability attributed to observed drought magnitude under climate change. A future (2031–2060) climate description produced by the calibrated WG is significantly hotter, with lower expected soil moisture than the future description obtained from global climate model (GCM) simulation results. The attribution-constrained WG describes future conditions where historical extreme and severe droughts are significantly more likely to occur.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219weather attributionstochastic weather generatorhuman-induced climate changewater balance modelsevere drought |
spellingShingle | Nick Martin Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections Hydrology weather attribution stochastic weather generator human-induced climate change water balance model severe drought |
title | Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections |
title_full | Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections |
title_fullStr | Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections |
title_full_unstemmed | Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections |
title_short | Incorporating Weather Attribution to Future Water Budget Projections |
title_sort | incorporating weather attribution to future water budget projections |
topic | weather attribution stochastic weather generator human-induced climate change water balance model severe drought |
url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/10/12/219 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT nickmartin incorporatingweatherattributiontofuturewaterbudgetprojections |