Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs
Abstract Caldera-forming eruptions have the potential to induce drastic socioeconomic change. However, the criteria to identify volcanoes capable of producing large magnitude eruptions in the future are not well constrained. Here we compile and analyse data, revealing that volcanoes which have produ...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19902-1 |
| _version_ | 1811264906336403456 |
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| author | Gregor Weber Tom E. Sheldrake |
| author_facet | Gregor Weber Tom E. Sheldrake |
| author_sort | Gregor Weber |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Caldera-forming eruptions have the potential to induce drastic socioeconomic change. However, the criteria to identify volcanoes capable of producing large magnitude eruptions in the future are not well constrained. Here we compile and analyse data, revealing that volcanoes which have produced catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions in the past, show larger ranges of erupted magma geochemistry compared to those that have not. This suggests geochemical variability is related to the size of magmatic systems. Using heat transfer simulations, we show that differences in magma flux result in a dependency between chemical diversity and magma volume that is consistent with these observations. We conclude that compositional spread should be included in the catalogue of criteria to identify volcanoes with greater probability of producing future large eruptions. Importantly, this allows to identify stratovolcanoes with caldera-like geochemical signatures, which have not yet been recognized as systems with greater likelihood of producing large magnitude eruptions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:12:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-87ef8cbb69734d1abca4a645b1b660fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T20:12:59Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-87ef8cbb69734d1abca4a645b1b660fb2022-12-22T03:18:12ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-09-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-19902-1Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcsGregor Weber0Tom E. Sheldrake1Department of Earth Sciences, University of OxfordDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of GenevaAbstract Caldera-forming eruptions have the potential to induce drastic socioeconomic change. However, the criteria to identify volcanoes capable of producing large magnitude eruptions in the future are not well constrained. Here we compile and analyse data, revealing that volcanoes which have produced catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions in the past, show larger ranges of erupted magma geochemistry compared to those that have not. This suggests geochemical variability is related to the size of magmatic systems. Using heat transfer simulations, we show that differences in magma flux result in a dependency between chemical diversity and magma volume that is consistent with these observations. We conclude that compositional spread should be included in the catalogue of criteria to identify volcanoes with greater probability of producing future large eruptions. Importantly, this allows to identify stratovolcanoes with caldera-like geochemical signatures, which have not yet been recognized as systems with greater likelihood of producing large magnitude eruptions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19902-1 |
| spellingShingle | Gregor Weber Tom E. Sheldrake Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs Scientific Reports |
| title | Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| title_full | Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| title_fullStr | Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| title_short | Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| title_sort | geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19902-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gregorweber geochemicalvariabilityasanindicatorforlargemagnitudeeruptionsinvolcanicarcs AT tomesheldrake geochemicalvariabilityasanindicatorforlargemagnitudeeruptionsinvolcanicarcs |