Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments
Most studies of deep decarbonization find that a diverse portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies will be required, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) that mitigates emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial sources. While many projects essential to commercializing the techno...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd19e |
| _version_ | 1797747872347717632 |
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| author | Ahmed Abdulla Ryan Hanna Kristen R Schell Oytun Babacan David G Victor |
| author_facet | Ahmed Abdulla Ryan Hanna Kristen R Schell Oytun Babacan David G Victor |
| author_sort | Ahmed Abdulla |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most studies of deep decarbonization find that a diverse portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies will be required, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) that mitigates emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial sources. While many projects essential to commercializing the technology have been proposed, most (>80%) end in failure. Here we analyze the full universe of CCS projects attempted in the U.S. that have sufficient documentation ( N =39)—the largest sample ever studied systematically. We quantify 12 project attributes that the literature has identified as possible determinants of project outcome. In addition to costs and technological readiness, which prior research has emphasized, we develop metrics for attributes that are widely thought to be important yet have eluded systematic measurement, such as the credibility of project revenues and policy incentives, and the role of regulatory complexity and public opposition. We build three models—two statistical and one derived through the elicitation of expert judgment—to evaluate the relative influence of these 12 attributes in explaining project outcome. Across models, we find the credibility of revenues and incentives to be among the most important attributes, along with capital cost and technological readiness. We therefore develop and elicit experts’ judgment of 14 types of policy incentives that could alter these attributes and improve the prospects for investment in CCS. Knowing which attributes have been most responsible for past successes and failures allows developers to avoid past mistakes and identify clusters of near-term CCS projects that are more likely to succeed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-883ed1ef02864e9bac3c606ce9327615 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:56:51Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-883ed1ef02864e9bac3c606ce93276152023-08-09T14:51:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0116101403610.1088/1748-9326/abd19eExplaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessmentsAhmed Abdulla0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1623-3912Ryan Hanna1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8120-8676Kristen R Schell2Oytun Babacan3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9141-8872David G Victor4Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Carleton University , Ottawa, ON, Canada; Deep Decarbonization Initiative, UC San Diego , La Jolla, CA, United States of AmericaDeep Decarbonization Initiative, UC San Diego , La Jolla, CA, United States of America; Center for Energy Research, UC San Diego , La Jolla, CA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Carleton University , Ottawa, ON, CanadaGrantham Institute—Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , London, United KingdomDeep Decarbonization Initiative, UC San Diego , La Jolla, CA, United States of America; School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego , La Jolla, CA, United States of America; The Brookings Institution , Washington, DC, United States of AmericaMost studies of deep decarbonization find that a diverse portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies will be required, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) that mitigates emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial sources. While many projects essential to commercializing the technology have been proposed, most (>80%) end in failure. Here we analyze the full universe of CCS projects attempted in the U.S. that have sufficient documentation ( N =39)—the largest sample ever studied systematically. We quantify 12 project attributes that the literature has identified as possible determinants of project outcome. In addition to costs and technological readiness, which prior research has emphasized, we develop metrics for attributes that are widely thought to be important yet have eluded systematic measurement, such as the credibility of project revenues and policy incentives, and the role of regulatory complexity and public opposition. We build three models—two statistical and one derived through the elicitation of expert judgment—to evaluate the relative influence of these 12 attributes in explaining project outcome. Across models, we find the credibility of revenues and incentives to be among the most important attributes, along with capital cost and technological readiness. We therefore develop and elicit experts’ judgment of 14 types of policy incentives that could alter these attributes and improve the prospects for investment in CCS. Knowing which attributes have been most responsible for past successes and failures allows developers to avoid past mistakes and identify clusters of near-term CCS projects that are more likely to succeed.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd19ecarbon capture and storagedecarbonizationpolitical economypreference elicitationstatistical learning |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed Abdulla Ryan Hanna Kristen R Schell Oytun Babacan David G Victor Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments Environmental Research Letters carbon capture and storage decarbonization political economy preference elicitation statistical learning |
| title | Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| title_full | Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| title_fullStr | Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| title_short | Explaining successful and failed investments in U.S. carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| title_sort | explaining successful and failed investments in u s carbon capture and storage using empirical and expert assessments |
| topic | carbon capture and storage decarbonization political economy preference elicitation statistical learning |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd19e |
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