Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India
Fluctuations in the precipitation pattern often tend to have an impact on the availability of water, making it necessary to explore spatiotemporal variations in rainfall. This study explores the time series analysis of the rainfall from 1952 to 2019. The trend was analyzed using the modified Mann–Ke...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/5/1532 |
| _version_ | 1797202826837884928 |
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| author | Sanjay Kumar S. A. Ahmed Jyothika Karkala |
| author_facet | Sanjay Kumar S. A. Ahmed Jyothika Karkala |
| author_sort | Sanjay Kumar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Fluctuations in the precipitation pattern often tend to have an impact on the availability of water, making it necessary to explore spatiotemporal variations in rainfall. This study explores the time series analysis of the rainfall from 1952 to 2019. The trend was analyzed using the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK), and innovative trend analysis (ITA). The analysis showed that the northern region received the least rainfall while the southern region received the maximum rainfall except that one of the stations had a positive kurtosis. The kurtosis of the rainfall histogram ranges from −0.69 to 24.13. The trend was very well defined by all the methods, though MMK z statistics showed more occurrences of significant changes in the rainfall. The northeast monsoon carried a significantly decreasing trend at Chikkanayakanahalli station where the z value of MMK and ITA_R test showed values of −1.33 and −2.23, respectively, while all of the significantly increasing trends were defined by the MMK test in the annual and southwest monsoon season. The homogeneity test showed the most correlation between Pettitt and Buishand tests in comparison to SNHT. Later, the ARIMA model was run for the precipitation to predict the rainfall value from 2019 to 2029.
HIGHLIGHTS
The semi-arid region in Karnataka is prone to drought conditions and lacks the presence of any major rivers.;
There are hardly any studies in the area which can contribute to policy making and mitigations method.;
MMK, Sen Slope and ITA methods visualize the historical trend.;
Homogeneity tests determine the changepoint and the ARIMA model forecasts the rainfall for the next decade.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:04:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8850a989d59d468ba218d23b1e092276 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:09:37Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-8850a989d59d468ba218d23b1e0922762024-04-17T08:29:41ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542023-05-011451532155010.2166/wcc.2023.441441Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, IndiaSanjay Kumar0S. A. Ahmed1Jyothika Karkala2 Department of Applied Geology, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta 577451, India Department of Applied Geology, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta 577451, India Department of Applied Geology, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta 577451, India Fluctuations in the precipitation pattern often tend to have an impact on the availability of water, making it necessary to explore spatiotemporal variations in rainfall. This study explores the time series analysis of the rainfall from 1952 to 2019. The trend was analyzed using the modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK), and innovative trend analysis (ITA). The analysis showed that the northern region received the least rainfall while the southern region received the maximum rainfall except that one of the stations had a positive kurtosis. The kurtosis of the rainfall histogram ranges from −0.69 to 24.13. The trend was very well defined by all the methods, though MMK z statistics showed more occurrences of significant changes in the rainfall. The northeast monsoon carried a significantly decreasing trend at Chikkanayakanahalli station where the z value of MMK and ITA_R test showed values of −1.33 and −2.23, respectively, while all of the significantly increasing trends were defined by the MMK test in the annual and southwest monsoon season. The homogeneity test showed the most correlation between Pettitt and Buishand tests in comparison to SNHT. Later, the ARIMA model was run for the precipitation to predict the rainfall value from 2019 to 2029. HIGHLIGHTS The semi-arid region in Karnataka is prone to drought conditions and lacks the presence of any major rivers.; There are hardly any studies in the area which can contribute to policy making and mitigations method.; MMK, Sen Slope and ITA methods visualize the historical trend.; Homogeneity tests determine the changepoint and the ARIMA model forecasts the rainfall for the next decade.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/5/1532homogeneity testinnovative trend analysismodified mann–kendallrainfall forecastsen's slopetumakuru |
| spellingShingle | Sanjay Kumar S. A. Ahmed Jyothika Karkala Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India Journal of Water and Climate Change homogeneity test innovative trend analysis modified mann–kendall rainfall forecast sen's slope tumakuru |
| title | Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India |
| title_full | Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India |
| title_fullStr | Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India |
| title_short | Time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non-parametric tests over a vulnerable region of Karnataka, India |
| title_sort | time series data and rainfall pattern subjected to climate change using non parametric tests over a vulnerable region of karnataka india |
| topic | homogeneity test innovative trend analysis modified mann–kendall rainfall forecast sen's slope tumakuru |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/5/1532 |
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