The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC
Simplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaece2 |
| _version_ | 1827870681481609216 |
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| author | Muye Ru Drew T Shindell Karl M Seltzer Shu Tao Qirui Zhong |
| author_facet | Muye Ru Drew T Shindell Karl M Seltzer Shu Tao Qirui Zhong |
| author_sort | Muye Ru |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Simplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline with income growth. However, current knowledge about this relationship lacks the specificity needed for each sector and pollutant pairing, which is important for future emission scenarios. To fill this knowledge gap, we analyze the historical relationship between per capita income and emissions of SO _2 , CO _2 , and black carbon (BC) utilizing widely-used global, country-level emission inventories for the following four sectors: power, industry, residential, and transportation. Based on a modeling setup using long-term growth rates, emissions of SO _2 from the power and industrial sectors, as well as CO _2 from the industrial and the residential sectors, largely follow an EKC pattern. Income-emission trajectories for SO _2 and CO _2 from other sectors, and those for BC from all sectors, do not show an EKC, however. Results across different global inventories were variable, indicating that uncertainties within historical emission trajectories persist. Nonetheless, these results demonstrate that long-term income-emission trajectories of air pollutants are both sector and pollutant specific. Future reference trajectories of SO _2 and BC from three IAMs show earlier estimates of turnover incomes and faster rates of emission declines when compared to historical data. Users of future emission scenarios derived using EKC assumptions should consider the underlying uncertainties in such projections in light of this historical analysis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-886884fe403c43ccbf556b610a0aa434 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:00:44Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-886884fe403c43ccbf556b610a0aa4342023-08-09T14:39:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-01131212402110.1088/1748-9326/aaece2The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BCMuye Ru0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3252-1030Drew T Shindell1Karl M Seltzer2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2175-5678Shu Tao3Qirui Zhong4Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , Durham, NC, United States of AmericaNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , Durham, NC, United States of America; Duke Global Health Initiative, Duke University , Durham, NC, United States of AmericaNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University , Durham, NC, United States of AmericaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University , Beijing, 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University , Beijing, 100871, People’s Republic of ChinaSimplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline with income growth. However, current knowledge about this relationship lacks the specificity needed for each sector and pollutant pairing, which is important for future emission scenarios. To fill this knowledge gap, we analyze the historical relationship between per capita income and emissions of SO _2 , CO _2 , and black carbon (BC) utilizing widely-used global, country-level emission inventories for the following four sectors: power, industry, residential, and transportation. Based on a modeling setup using long-term growth rates, emissions of SO _2 from the power and industrial sectors, as well as CO _2 from the industrial and the residential sectors, largely follow an EKC pattern. Income-emission trajectories for SO _2 and CO _2 from other sectors, and those for BC from all sectors, do not show an EKC, however. Results across different global inventories were variable, indicating that uncertainties within historical emission trajectories persist. Nonetheless, these results demonstrate that long-term income-emission trajectories of air pollutants are both sector and pollutant specific. Future reference trajectories of SO _2 and BC from three IAMs show earlier estimates of turnover incomes and faster rates of emission declines when compared to historical data. Users of future emission scenarios derived using EKC assumptions should consider the underlying uncertainties in such projections in light of this historical analysis.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaece2emissiontrajectoryeconomic growthenvironmental Kuznets curveblack carbonintegrated assessment models |
| spellingShingle | Muye Ru Drew T Shindell Karl M Seltzer Shu Tao Qirui Zhong The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC Environmental Research Letters emission trajectory economic growth environmental Kuznets curve black carbon integrated assessment models |
| title | The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC |
| title_full | The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC |
| title_fullStr | The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC |
| title_full_unstemmed | The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC |
| title_short | The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC |
| title_sort | long term relationship between emissions and economic growth for so2 co2 and bc |
| topic | emission trajectory economic growth environmental Kuznets curve black carbon integrated assessment models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaece2 |
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