Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China

Abstract Background There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definitio...

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Main Authors: Yunquan Zhang, Renjie Feng, Ran Wu, Peirong Zhong, Xiaodong Tan, Kai Wu, Lu Ma
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2017-04-01
Series:Global Health Research and Policy
Subjects:
Online Access:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41256-017-0030-2
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author Yunquan Zhang
Renjie Feng
Ran Wu
Peirong Zhong
Xiaodong Tan
Kai Wu
Lu Ma
author_facet Yunquan Zhang
Renjie Feng
Ran Wu
Peirong Zhong
Xiaodong Tan
Kai Wu
Lu Ma
author_sort Yunquan Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems. Methods We developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May–September) in Wuhan, China during 2003–2010. Results Heat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature ≥ 99.0th percentile and duration ≥ 3 days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age ≥ 65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting. Conclusion These findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.
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spelling doaj.art-8872b536f7b142f4be95b9fd960b0a962022-12-22T01:04:13ZengBMCGlobal Health Research and Policy2397-06422017-04-01211910.1186/s41256-017-0030-2Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, ChinaYunquan Zhang0Renjie Feng1Ran Wu2Peirong Zhong3Xiaodong Tan4Kai Wu5Lu Ma6Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityJiang’an District Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan UniversityAbstract Background There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems. Methods We developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May–September) in Wuhan, China during 2003–2010. Results Heat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature ≥ 99.0th percentile and duration ≥ 3 days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age ≥ 65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting. Conclusion These findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41256-017-0030-2Climate changeTemperatureHeat waveDefinitionMortalityChina
spellingShingle Yunquan Zhang
Renjie Feng
Ran Wu
Peirong Zhong
Xiaodong Tan
Kai Wu
Lu Ma
Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
Global Health Research and Policy
Climate change
Temperature
Heat wave
Definition
Mortality
China
title Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
title_full Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
title_fullStr Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
title_full_unstemmed Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
title_short Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China
title_sort global climate change impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in wuhan china
topic Climate change
Temperature
Heat wave
Definition
Mortality
China
url http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41256-017-0030-2
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