Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries
Abstract The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resol...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Applied Water Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02111-8 |
| _version_ | 1797266644236500992 |
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| author | Ahmed M. Elbelasy Abdel Hamed M. Khater Eid H. Hassan Amir S. Ibrahim |
| author_facet | Ahmed M. Elbelasy Abdel Hamed M. Khater Eid H. Hassan Amir S. Ibrahim |
| author_sort | Ahmed M. Elbelasy |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resolution digital elevation model was developed with 2670-km length starting from GERD till Aswan High Dam. GERD’s reservoir, urban, and rural lands downstream of the GERD were presented using a numerical model. The modeled areas included parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, not to mention Toshka Spillway. The model areas were not divided into parts because of calculating the water levels at the existence of intermediate dams as model outputs. In case possible failure of GERD, Roseires and Sennar dams could collapse. Meanwhile, Merowe dam can sustain with the operation of its emergency spillway. Wave height reaches 100-m downstream of the GERD and 64-m and 31-m downstream of the Roseires and Merowe dams, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:47:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-88b669aa304a4c82819e22b30a4d9ad2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-5487 2190-5495 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:03:58Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Water Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-88b669aa304a4c82819e22b30a4d9ad22024-03-10T12:19:10ZengSpringerOpenApplied Water Science2190-54872190-54952024-02-0114312210.1007/s13201-024-02111-8Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countriesAhmed M. Elbelasy0Abdel Hamed M. Khater1Eid H. Hassan2Amir S. Ibrahim3National Water Research CenterNational Water Research CenterNational Water Research CenterCivil Engineering Department, Benha Faculty of Engineering, Benha UniversityAbstract The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resolution digital elevation model was developed with 2670-km length starting from GERD till Aswan High Dam. GERD’s reservoir, urban, and rural lands downstream of the GERD were presented using a numerical model. The modeled areas included parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, not to mention Toshka Spillway. The model areas were not divided into parts because of calculating the water levels at the existence of intermediate dams as model outputs. In case possible failure of GERD, Roseires and Sennar dams could collapse. Meanwhile, Merowe dam can sustain with the operation of its emergency spillway. Wave height reaches 100-m downstream of the GERD and 64-m and 31-m downstream of the Roseires and Merowe dams, respectively.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02111-8GERDNile RiverLake NasserAHDDEMNumerical model |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed M. Elbelasy Abdel Hamed M. Khater Eid H. Hassan Amir S. Ibrahim Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries Applied Water Science GERD Nile River Lake Nasser AHD DEM Numerical model |
| title | Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries |
| title_full | Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries |
| title_fullStr | Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries |
| title_short | Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries |
| title_sort | numerical assessment of the risk of gerd break on the downstream countries |
| topic | GERD Nile River Lake Nasser AHD DEM Numerical model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-024-02111-8 |
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