Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epid...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/22/2849 |
| _version_ | 1797509520645160960 |
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| author | Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan |
| author_facet | Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan |
| author_sort | Qingqing Ji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model’s prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:18:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd91 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:18:56Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-88d91e07a85a4aacbed5b15abd3bbd912023-11-23T00:13:59ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902021-11-01922284910.3390/math9222849Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health InterventionsQingqing Ji0Xu Zhao1Hanlin Ma2Qing Liu3Yiwen Liu4Qiyue Guan5University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFaculty of Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, ChinaFaculty of Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, ChinaFaculty of Science, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaParty School of the Central Committee of C.P.C (National Academy of Governance), Beijing 100091, ChinaAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country’s production and people’s daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model’s prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/22/2849novel coronavirusepidemic controltraffic control measuresleast square estimationSIR model |
| spellingShingle | Qingqing Ji Xu Zhao Hanlin Ma Qing Liu Yiwen Liu Qiyue Guan Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions Mathematics novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model |
| title | Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions |
| title_full | Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions |
| title_short | Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions |
| title_sort | estimation of covid 19 transmission and advice on public health interventions |
| topic | novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/22/2849 |
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