Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress
Climate change will drive increased frequencies of extreme climatic events. Despite this, there is little scholarly information on the extent to which waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events will impact on crop physiological behaviour. To improve the ability to reliably model crop growth and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b5a |
| _version_ | 1797747537289936896 |
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| author | Ke Liu Matthew Tom Harrison Sotirios V Archontoulis Neil Huth Rui Yang De Li Liu Haoliang Yan Holger Meinke Isaiah Huber Puyu Feng Ahmed Ibrahim Yunbo Zhang Xiaohai Tian Meixue Zhou |
| author_facet | Ke Liu Matthew Tom Harrison Sotirios V Archontoulis Neil Huth Rui Yang De Li Liu Haoliang Yan Holger Meinke Isaiah Huber Puyu Feng Ahmed Ibrahim Yunbo Zhang Xiaohai Tian Meixue Zhou |
| author_sort | Ke Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change will drive increased frequencies of extreme climatic events. Despite this, there is little scholarly information on the extent to which waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events will impact on crop physiological behaviour. To improve the ability to reliably model crop growth and development under soil waterlogging stress, we advanced the process-basis of waterlogging in the farming systems model Agricultural Systems Production Systems sIMulator. Our new mathematical description of waterlogging adequately represented waterlogging stress effects on the development, biomass and grain yield of many commercial Australian barley genotypes. We then used the improved model to examine how optimal flowering periods (OFPs, the point at which long-term abiotic stresses are minimal) change under historical and future climates in waterlogging-prone environments, and found that climate change will reduce waterlogging stress and shift forward OFP (26 d earlier on average across locations). For the emissions scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 at 2090, waterlogging stresses diminished but this was not enough to prevent substantial yield reduction due to increasingly severe high temperature stress (−35% average reduction in yield across locations, genotypes and sowing dates). It was shown that seasonal waterlogging stress patterns under future conditions will be similar to those occurring historically. Yield reduction caused by waterlogging stress was 6% and 4% on average across sites under historical and future climates. To adapt, both genotypic and management adaptations will be required: earlier sowing and planting waterlogging tolerant genotypes mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 26% and 24% under historical and future climates. We conclude that even though the prevalence of waterlogging in future will diminish, climate change and extreme climatic events will have substantial and perverse effects on the productivity and sustainability of Australian farms. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-88f080aafb224b409a92a4be8f12fe6c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-88f080aafb224b409a92a4be8f12fe6c2023-08-09T15:04:47ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116909401710.1088/1748-9326/ac1b5aClimate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stressKe Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8343-0449Matthew Tom Harrison1Sotirios V Archontoulis2Neil Huth3Rui Yang4De Li Liu5Haoliang Yan6Holger Meinke7Isaiah Huber8Puyu Feng9Ahmed Ibrahim10Yunbo Zhang11Xiaohai Tian12Meixue Zhou13Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry/School of Agriculture, Yangtze University , Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania , Burnie 7320, Tasmania, AustraliaTasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania , Burnie 7320, Tasmania, AustraliaDepartment of Agronomy, Iowa State University , Ames, IA 50011, United States of AmericaCSIRO , PO Box 102, Toowoomba 4350, Queensland, AustraliaHubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry/School of Agriculture, Yangtze University , Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaNew South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute , Wagga Wagga, New South Wales, AustraliaHubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry/School of Agriculture, Yangtze University , Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaTasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania , Burnie 7320, Tasmania, AustraliaDepartment of Agronomy, Iowa State University , Ames, IA 50011, United States of AmericaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University , Beijing 100193, People’s Republic of ChinaTasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania , Burnie 7320, Tasmania, AustraliaHubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry/School of Agriculture, Yangtze University , Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaHubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Grain Industry/School of Agriculture, Yangtze University , Jingzhou 434025, Hubei, People’s Republic of ChinaTasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania , Burnie 7320, Tasmania, AustraliaClimate change will drive increased frequencies of extreme climatic events. Despite this, there is little scholarly information on the extent to which waterlogging caused by extreme rainfall events will impact on crop physiological behaviour. To improve the ability to reliably model crop growth and development under soil waterlogging stress, we advanced the process-basis of waterlogging in the farming systems model Agricultural Systems Production Systems sIMulator. Our new mathematical description of waterlogging adequately represented waterlogging stress effects on the development, biomass and grain yield of many commercial Australian barley genotypes. We then used the improved model to examine how optimal flowering periods (OFPs, the point at which long-term abiotic stresses are minimal) change under historical and future climates in waterlogging-prone environments, and found that climate change will reduce waterlogging stress and shift forward OFP (26 d earlier on average across locations). For the emissions scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 at 2090, waterlogging stresses diminished but this was not enough to prevent substantial yield reduction due to increasingly severe high temperature stress (−35% average reduction in yield across locations, genotypes and sowing dates). It was shown that seasonal waterlogging stress patterns under future conditions will be similar to those occurring historically. Yield reduction caused by waterlogging stress was 6% and 4% on average across sites under historical and future climates. To adapt, both genotypic and management adaptations will be required: earlier sowing and planting waterlogging tolerant genotypes mitigate yield penalty caused by waterlogging by up to 26% and 24% under historical and future climates. We conclude that even though the prevalence of waterlogging in future will diminish, climate change and extreme climatic events will have substantial and perverse effects on the productivity and sustainability of Australian farms.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b5abreedingclimate changeextreme climatic eventsenvironmental characterisationtolerance |
| spellingShingle | Ke Liu Matthew Tom Harrison Sotirios V Archontoulis Neil Huth Rui Yang De Li Liu Haoliang Yan Holger Meinke Isaiah Huber Puyu Feng Ahmed Ibrahim Yunbo Zhang Xiaohai Tian Meixue Zhou Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress Environmental Research Letters breeding climate change extreme climatic events environmental characterisation tolerance |
| title | Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| title_full | Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| title_fullStr | Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| title_short | Climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| title_sort | climate change shifts forward flowering and reduces crop waterlogging stress |
| topic | breeding climate change extreme climatic events environmental characterisation tolerance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b5a |
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