European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. H...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e |
| _version_ | 1797748006904135680 |
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| author | Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Andrea Seim Paul J Krusic Jesús Fidel González-Rouco Johannes P Werner Edward R Cook Eduardo Zorita Jürg Luterbacher Elena Xoplaki Georgia Destouni Elena García-Bustamante Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar Kristina Seftigen Jianglin Wang Mary H Gagen Jan Esper Olga Solomina Dominik Fleitmann Ulf Büntgen |
| author_facet | Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Andrea Seim Paul J Krusic Jesús Fidel González-Rouco Johannes P Werner Edward R Cook Eduardo Zorita Jürg Luterbacher Elena Xoplaki Georgia Destouni Elena García-Bustamante Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar Kristina Seftigen Jianglin Wang Mary H Gagen Jan Esper Olga Solomina Dominik Fleitmann Ulf Büntgen |
| author_sort | Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-88fe6b5256374760ad18fdd2825e9dcc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:45Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-88fe6b5256374760ad18fdd2825e9dcc2023-08-09T14:44:57ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114808401510.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7eEuropean warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CEFredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0220-3947Andrea Seim1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7201-8010Paul J Krusic2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5358-9697Jesús Fidel González-Rouco3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7090-6797Johannes P Werner4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4015-7398Edward R Cook5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7478-4176Eduardo Zorita6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7264-5743Jürg Luterbacher7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8569-0973Elena Xoplaki8https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2745-2467Georgia Destouni9https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9408-4425Elena García-Bustamante10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2677-0252Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar11https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0060-1853Kristina Seftigen12https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5555-5757Jianglin Wang13https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9827-9518Mary H Gagen14https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6820-6457Jan Esper15https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3919-014XOlga Solomina16https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3307-1951Dominik Fleitmann17https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5977-8835Ulf Büntgen18https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3821-0818Department of History, Stockholm University , Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University , Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, United KingdomChair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology, Institute of Forest Sciences, University of Freiburg , Freiburg, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University , Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Physics of the Earth and Astrophysics, IGEO (UCM-CSIC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, SpainBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen , Bergen, NorwayLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University , Palisades, United States of AmericaHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute for Coastal Research , Geesthacht, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen , Giessen, Germany; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen , Giessen, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen , Giessen, GermanyBolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University , Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University , Stockholm, SwedenUnidad de Energía Eolica, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT), Madrid, SpainDepartment of Physics of the Earth and Astrophysics, IGEO (UCM-CSIC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, SpainGeorges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg , Gothenburg, SwedenKey Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Geography, Swansea University , Swansea, United KingdomDepartment of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University , Mainz, GermanyInstitute of Geography , Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaDepartment of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel , Basel, SwitzerlandDepartment of Geography, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, United Kingdom; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL , Birmensdorf, Switzerland; CzechGlobe Global Change Research Institute CAS , Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, Masaryk University , Brno, Czech RepublicThe long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7eclimate variabilityclimate model simulationsgridded climate reconstructionshydroclimateEuropepast millennium |
| spellingShingle | Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Andrea Seim Paul J Krusic Jesús Fidel González-Rouco Johannes P Werner Edward R Cook Eduardo Zorita Jürg Luterbacher Elena Xoplaki Georgia Destouni Elena García-Bustamante Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar Kristina Seftigen Jianglin Wang Mary H Gagen Jan Esper Olga Solomina Dominik Fleitmann Ulf Büntgen European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE Environmental Research Letters climate variability climate model simulations gridded climate reconstructions hydroclimate Europe past millennium |
| title | European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE |
| title_full | European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE |
| title_fullStr | European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE |
| title_full_unstemmed | European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE |
| title_short | European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE |
| title_sort | european warm season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 ce |
| topic | climate variability climate model simulations gridded climate reconstructions hydroclimate Europe past millennium |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2c7e |
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