Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting
With the rapid increase of energy demand, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate energy demand forecasts. To incorporate long time causal relationships, autoregressive with exoge-nous regression components models have received increasing attention from many researchers in this fiel...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Growing Science
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Management Science Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.growingscience.com/msl/Vol8/msl_2018_45.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818481829319016448 |
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| author | Najmeh Neshat Hengameh Hadian Matineh Behzad |
| author_facet | Najmeh Neshat Hengameh Hadian Matineh Behzad |
| author_sort | Najmeh Neshat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | With the rapid increase of energy demand, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate energy demand forecasts. To incorporate long time causal relationships, autoregressive with exoge-nous regression components models have received increasing attention from many researchers in this field. These are linear models applied through hybrid methodology of time series and econo-metrics, however, some recent studies find evidences that nonlinear models outperform over linear ones in long term peak demand forecasting. This paper proposed a nonlinear Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs (N-ARIMAX) model to forecast sectoral peak demand using a case study of Iran. The results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the existing models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T11:40:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-895404e6f9d64339b40e1e20af3db41d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1923-9335 1923-9343 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T11:40:15Z |
| publishDate | 2018-06-01 |
| publisher | Growing Science |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Management Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-895404e6f9d64339b40e1e20af3db41d2022-12-22T01:50:17ZengGrowing ScienceManagement Science Letters1923-93351923-93432018-06-018658159210.5267/j.msl.2018.4.032Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecastingNajmeh Neshat Hengameh HadianMatineh BehzadWith the rapid increase of energy demand, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate energy demand forecasts. To incorporate long time causal relationships, autoregressive with exoge-nous regression components models have received increasing attention from many researchers in this field. These are linear models applied through hybrid methodology of time series and econo-metrics, however, some recent studies find evidences that nonlinear models outperform over linear ones in long term peak demand forecasting. This paper proposed a nonlinear Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Inputs (N-ARIMAX) model to forecast sectoral peak demand using a case study of Iran. The results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the existing models.http://www.growingscience.com/msl/Vol8/msl_2018_45.pdfNonlinear Forecasting ModelTimes-Series AnalysisPeak Demand |
| spellingShingle | Najmeh Neshat Hengameh Hadian Matineh Behzad Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting Management Science Letters Nonlinear Forecasting Model Times-Series Analysis Peak Demand |
| title | Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting |
| title_full | Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting |
| title_short | Nonlinear ARIMAX model for long –term sectoral demand forecasting |
| title_sort | nonlinear arimax model for long term sectoral demand forecasting |
| topic | Nonlinear Forecasting Model Times-Series Analysis Peak Demand |
| url | http://www.growingscience.com/msl/Vol8/msl_2018_45.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT najmehneshat nonlineararimaxmodelforlongtermsectoraldemandforecasting AT hengamehhadian nonlineararimaxmodelforlongtermsectoraldemandforecasting AT matinehbehzad nonlineararimaxmodelforlongtermsectoraldemandforecasting |