The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania
A study was conducted using maize samples collected from different agroecological zones of Kenya (<i>n</i> = 471) and Tanzania (<i>n</i> = 100) during the 2013 maize harvest season to estimate a relationship between aflatoxin B1 concentration and occurrence with weather condi...
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MDPI AG
2021-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/10/2/216 |
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| author | Benigni A. Temba Ross E. Darnell Anne Gichangi Deogratias Lwezaura Philip G. Pardey Jagger J. Harvey James Karanja Said M. S. Massomo Noboru Ota James M. Wainaina Mary T. Fletcher Darren J. Kriticos |
| author_facet | Benigni A. Temba Ross E. Darnell Anne Gichangi Deogratias Lwezaura Philip G. Pardey Jagger J. Harvey James Karanja Said M. S. Massomo Noboru Ota James M. Wainaina Mary T. Fletcher Darren J. Kriticos |
| author_sort | Benigni A. Temba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A study was conducted using maize samples collected from different agroecological zones of Kenya (<i>n</i> = 471) and Tanzania (<i>n</i> = 100) during the 2013 maize harvest season to estimate a relationship between aflatoxin B1 concentration and occurrence with weather conditions during the growing season. The toxins were analysed by the ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method. Aflatoxin B1 incidence ranged between 0–100% of samples in different regions with an average value of 29.4% and aflatoxin concentrations of up to 6075 µg/kg recorded in one sample. Several regression techniques were explored. Random forests achieved the highest overall accuracy of 80%, while the accuracy of a logistic regression model was 65%. Low rainfall occurring during the early stage of the maize plant maturing combined with high temperatures leading up to full maturity provide warning signs of aflatoxin contamination. Risk maps for the two countries for the 2013 season were generated using both random forests and logistic regression models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:05:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-897e3ae1c51343adb562613598b5d350 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2304-8158 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:05:42Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foods |
| spelling | doaj.art-897e3ae1c51343adb562613598b5d3502023-12-03T14:07:35ZengMDPI AGFoods2304-81582021-01-0110221610.3390/foods10020216The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and TanzaniaBenigni A. Temba0Ross E. Darnell1Anne Gichangi2Deogratias Lwezaura3Philip G. Pardey4Jagger J. Harvey5James Karanja6Said M. S. Massomo7Noboru Ota8James M. Wainaina9Mary T. Fletcher10Darren J. Kriticos11College of Veterinary and Medical Sciences, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3000, Morogoro, TanzaniaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, QLD 4001, AustraliaKenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, P.O. Box 57811, Nairobi 00200, KenyaTanzania Agricultural Research Institute, Arusha Road, P.O. Box 1571, Dodoma, TanzaniaDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Ave, 248 Ruttan Hall, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USADepartment of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAKenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, P.O. Box 57811, Nairobi 00200, KenyaDepartment of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology and Environmental Studies, The Open University of Tanzania, P.O. Box 23409, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, GPO Box 100, Canberra, ACT 2601, AustraliaDepartment of Microbiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43201, USAQueensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI), The University of Queensland, Health and Food Sciences Precinct, Coopers Plains, QLD 4108, AustraliaCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, GPO Box 100, Canberra, ACT 2601, AustraliaA study was conducted using maize samples collected from different agroecological zones of Kenya (<i>n</i> = 471) and Tanzania (<i>n</i> = 100) during the 2013 maize harvest season to estimate a relationship between aflatoxin B1 concentration and occurrence with weather conditions during the growing season. The toxins were analysed by the ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method. Aflatoxin B1 incidence ranged between 0–100% of samples in different regions with an average value of 29.4% and aflatoxin concentrations of up to 6075 µg/kg recorded in one sample. Several regression techniques were explored. Random forests achieved the highest overall accuracy of 80%, while the accuracy of a logistic regression model was 65%. Low rainfall occurring during the early stage of the maize plant maturing combined with high temperatures leading up to full maturity provide warning signs of aflatoxin contamination. Risk maps for the two countries for the 2013 season were generated using both random forests and logistic regression models.https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/10/2/216aflatoxinmaizeriskmodellingclimateKenya |
| spellingShingle | Benigni A. Temba Ross E. Darnell Anne Gichangi Deogratias Lwezaura Philip G. Pardey Jagger J. Harvey James Karanja Said M. S. Massomo Noboru Ota James M. Wainaina Mary T. Fletcher Darren J. Kriticos The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania Foods aflatoxin maize risk modelling climate Kenya |
| title | The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania |
| title_full | The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania |
| title_fullStr | The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania |
| title_short | The Influence of Weather on the Occurrence of Aflatoxin B1 in Harvested Maize from Kenya and Tanzania |
| title_sort | influence of weather on the occurrence of aflatoxin b1 in harvested maize from kenya and tanzania |
| topic | aflatoxin maize risk modelling climate Kenya |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/10/2/216 |
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