Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Abstract Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthro...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38510-9 |
| _version_ | 1827943326409555968 |
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| author | Xuezhi Tan Xinxin Wu Zeqin Huang Jianyu Fu Xuejin Tan Simin Deng Yaxin Liu Thian Yew Gan Bingjun Liu |
| author_facet | Xuezhi Tan Xinxin Wu Zeqin Huang Jianyu Fu Xuejin Tan Simin Deng Yaxin Liu Thian Yew Gan Bingjun Liu |
| author_sort | Xuezhi Tan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic influences on these changes. Results show that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be 2.56 ± 0.16 times higher than in 1979–2019 by the end of the 21st Century, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between two extremes. The most dramatic increases of whiplash show in the polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a much higher percentage change than precipitation totals. In historical simulations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions have increased and decreased precipitation whiplash occurrences, respectively. By 2079, anthropogenic GHGs are projected to increase 55 ± 4% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash, which is driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to precipitation extremes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:13:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a12520f98fc443bad59a44929f8a038 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:13:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a12520f98fc443bad59a44929f8a0382023-05-21T11:20:20ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-05-0114111510.1038/s41467-023-38510-9Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissionsXuezhi Tan0Xinxin Wu1Zeqin Huang2Jianyu Fu3Xuejin Tan4Simin Deng5Yaxin Liu6Thian Yew Gan7Bingjun Liu8Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of AlbertaCenter of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen UniversityAbstract Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic influences on these changes. Results show that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be 2.56 ± 0.16 times higher than in 1979–2019 by the end of the 21st Century, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between two extremes. The most dramatic increases of whiplash show in the polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a much higher percentage change than precipitation totals. In historical simulations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions have increased and decreased precipitation whiplash occurrences, respectively. By 2079, anthropogenic GHGs are projected to increase 55 ± 4% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash, which is driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to precipitation extremes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38510-9 |
| spellingShingle | Xuezhi Tan Xinxin Wu Zeqin Huang Jianyu Fu Xuejin Tan Simin Deng Yaxin Liu Thian Yew Gan Bingjun Liu Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions Nature Communications |
| title | Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| title_full | Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| title_fullStr | Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| title_short | Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| title_sort | increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38510-9 |
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