Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China
Abstract Background Recently, attention has focused on the impact of global climate change on infectious diseases. Storm flooding is an extreme weather phenomenon that not only impacts the health of the environment but also worsens the spread of pathogens. This poses a significant challenge to publi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| 格式: | 文件 |
| 语言: | English |
| 出版: |
BMC
2023-09-01
|
| 丛编: | BMC Public Health |
| 主题: | |
| 在线阅读: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16754-w |
| _version_ | 1827707823932309504 |
|---|---|
| author | Piao-yi Luo Meng-xiang Chen Wen-tao Kuang Han Ni Jin Zhao Hao-yun Dai Xiang Ren Shang-hui Yi Xiu-qin Hong Wen-ting Zha Yuan Lv |
| author_facet | Piao-yi Luo Meng-xiang Chen Wen-tao Kuang Han Ni Jin Zhao Hao-yun Dai Xiang Ren Shang-hui Yi Xiu-qin Hong Wen-ting Zha Yuan Lv |
| author_sort | Piao-yi Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Recently, attention has focused on the impact of global climate change on infectious diseases. Storm flooding is an extreme weather phenomenon that not only impacts the health of the environment but also worsens the spread of pathogens. This poses a significant challenge to public health security. However, there is still a lack of research on how different levels of storm flooding affect susceptible enteric infectious diseases over time. Methods Data on enteric infectious diseases, storm flooding events, and meteorology were collected for Changsha, Hunan Province, between 2016 and 2020. The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test was used to identify the enteric infectious diseases that are susceptible to storm flooding. Then, the lagged effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases were analyzed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Results There were eleven storm flooding events in Changsha from 2016 to 2020, concentrated in June and July. 37,882 cases of enteric infectious diseases were reported. During non-flooding days, the daily incidence rates of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery were 0.3/100,000 and 0.1/100,000, respectively. During flooding days, the corresponding rates increased to 2.0/100,000 and 0.8/100,000, respectively. The incidence rates of both diseases showed statistically significant differences between non-flooding and flooding days. Correlation analysis shows that the best lags for typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery relative to storm flooding events may be 1 and 3 days. The results of the distributed lag nonlinear model showed that typhoid/paratyphoid had the highest cumulative RR values of 2.86 (95% CI: 1.71–4.76) and 8.16 (95% CI: 2.93–22.67) after 4 days of general flooding and heavy flooding, respectively; and bacillary dysentery had the highest cumulative RR values of 1.82 (95% CI: 1.40–2.35) and 3.31 (95% CI: 1.97–5.55) after 5 days of general flooding and heavy flooding, respectively. Conclusions Typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery are sensitive enteric infectious diseases related to storm flooding in Changsha. There is a lagging effect of storm flooding on the onset of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery, with the best lagging periods being days 1 and 3, respectively. The cumulative risk of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery was highest at 4/5 days lag, respectively. The higher of storm flooding, the higher the risk of disease, which suggests that the authorities should take appropriate preventive and control measures before and after storm flooding. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:54:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a1371fd55e24035887f8c52a7c4c998 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:54:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a1371fd55e24035887f8c52a7c4c9982023-11-20T11:11:48ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-09-0123111210.1186/s12889-023-16754-wHysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of ChinaPiao-yi Luo0Meng-xiang Chen1Wen-tao Kuang2Han Ni3Jin Zhao4Hao-yun Dai5Xiang Ren6Shang-hui Yi7Xiu-qin Hong8Wen-ting Zha9Yuan Lv10Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityHunan Provincial People’s Hospital Affiliated to Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, Medical School of Hunan Normal UniversityAbstract Background Recently, attention has focused on the impact of global climate change on infectious diseases. Storm flooding is an extreme weather phenomenon that not only impacts the health of the environment but also worsens the spread of pathogens. This poses a significant challenge to public health security. However, there is still a lack of research on how different levels of storm flooding affect susceptible enteric infectious diseases over time. Methods Data on enteric infectious diseases, storm flooding events, and meteorology were collected for Changsha, Hunan Province, between 2016 and 2020. The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test was used to identify the enteric infectious diseases that are susceptible to storm flooding. Then, the lagged effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases were analyzed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Results There were eleven storm flooding events in Changsha from 2016 to 2020, concentrated in June and July. 37,882 cases of enteric infectious diseases were reported. During non-flooding days, the daily incidence rates of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery were 0.3/100,000 and 0.1/100,000, respectively. During flooding days, the corresponding rates increased to 2.0/100,000 and 0.8/100,000, respectively. The incidence rates of both diseases showed statistically significant differences between non-flooding and flooding days. Correlation analysis shows that the best lags for typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery relative to storm flooding events may be 1 and 3 days. The results of the distributed lag nonlinear model showed that typhoid/paratyphoid had the highest cumulative RR values of 2.86 (95% CI: 1.71–4.76) and 8.16 (95% CI: 2.93–22.67) after 4 days of general flooding and heavy flooding, respectively; and bacillary dysentery had the highest cumulative RR values of 1.82 (95% CI: 1.40–2.35) and 3.31 (95% CI: 1.97–5.55) after 5 days of general flooding and heavy flooding, respectively. Conclusions Typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery are sensitive enteric infectious diseases related to storm flooding in Changsha. There is a lagging effect of storm flooding on the onset of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery, with the best lagging periods being days 1 and 3, respectively. The cumulative risk of typhoid/paratyphoid and bacillary dysentery was highest at 4/5 days lag, respectively. The higher of storm flooding, the higher the risk of disease, which suggests that the authorities should take appropriate preventive and control measures before and after storm flooding.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16754-wStorm floodingEnteric infectious diseasesLagged effectsDistributed lag nonlinear model |
| spellingShingle | Piao-yi Luo Meng-xiang Chen Wen-tao Kuang Han Ni Jin Zhao Hao-yun Dai Xiang Ren Shang-hui Yi Xiu-qin Hong Wen-ting Zha Yuan Lv Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China BMC Public Health Storm flooding Enteric infectious diseases Lagged effects Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| title | Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China |
| title_full | Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China |
| title_fullStr | Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China |
| title_short | Hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of China |
| title_sort | hysteresis effects of different levels of storm flooding on susceptible enteric infectious diseases in a central city of china |
| topic | Storm flooding Enteric infectious diseases Lagged effects Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-16754-w |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT piaoyiluo hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT mengxiangchen hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT wentaokuang hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT hanni hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT jinzhao hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT haoyundai hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT xiangren hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT shanghuiyi hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT xiuqinhong hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT wentingzha hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina AT yuanlv hysteresiseffectsofdifferentlevelsofstormfloodingonsusceptibleentericinfectiousdiseasesinacentralcityofchina |