Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa
The magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patter...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/497 |
| _version_ | 1811253805273055232 |
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| author | Uvirkaa Akumaga Aondover Tarhule |
| author_facet | Uvirkaa Akumaga Aondover Tarhule |
| author_sort | Uvirkaa Akumaga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patterns is critically needed for adaptation and mitigation planning. Using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenarios at the mid-future time period, 2021/2025-2050 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) dataset; this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the projected changes in rainfall characteristics in three agro-ecological zones of the Niger River Basin. The results show an increase in the average rainfall of about 5%, 10⁻20% and 10⁻15% for the Southern Guinea, Northern Guinea and Sahelian zones, respectively, relative to the baseline, 1981/1985⁻2005. On the other hand, the change in future rainfall intensities are largely significant and the frequency of rainfall at the low, heavy and extreme rainfall events in the future decrease at most locations in the Niger River Basin. The results also showed an increase in the frequency of moderate rainfall events at all locations in the basin. However, in the Northern Guinea and Sahel locations, there is an increase in the frequency of projected heavy and extreme rainfall events. The results reveal a shift in the future onset/cessation and a shortening of the duration of the rainy season in the basin. Specifically, the mean date of rainfall onset will be delayed by between 10 and 32 days. The mean onset of cessation will also be delayed by between 10 and 21 days. It is posited that the projected rainfall changes pose serious risks for food security of the region and may require changes in the cropping patterns and management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:56:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a4497c8ff3f467384e4032b2f660bef |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T16:56:52Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a4497c8ff3f467384e4032b2f660bef2022-12-22T03:24:12ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332018-12-0191249710.3390/atmos9120497atmos9120497Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West AfricaUvirkaa Akumaga0Aondover Tarhule1Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, 371 Agricultural Hall, Room 272, Stillwater, OK 73019, USADepartment of Geography, Binghamton University, PO Box 6000, Binghamton, NY 13902-6000, USAThe magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patterns is critically needed for adaptation and mitigation planning. Using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenarios at the mid-future time period, 2021/2025-2050 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) dataset; this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the projected changes in rainfall characteristics in three agro-ecological zones of the Niger River Basin. The results show an increase in the average rainfall of about 5%, 10⁻20% and 10⁻15% for the Southern Guinea, Northern Guinea and Sahelian zones, respectively, relative to the baseline, 1981/1985⁻2005. On the other hand, the change in future rainfall intensities are largely significant and the frequency of rainfall at the low, heavy and extreme rainfall events in the future decrease at most locations in the Niger River Basin. The results also showed an increase in the frequency of moderate rainfall events at all locations in the basin. However, in the Northern Guinea and Sahel locations, there is an increase in the frequency of projected heavy and extreme rainfall events. The results reveal a shift in the future onset/cessation and a shortening of the duration of the rainy season in the basin. Specifically, the mean date of rainfall onset will be delayed by between 10 and 32 days. The mean onset of cessation will also be delayed by between 10 and 21 days. It is posited that the projected rainfall changes pose serious risks for food security of the region and may require changes in the cropping patterns and management.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/497cereal yieldclimate changerainfallrainfall characteristicsNiger BasinWest Africa |
| spellingShingle | Uvirkaa Akumaga Aondover Tarhule Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa Atmosphere cereal yield climate change rainfall rainfall characteristics Niger Basin West Africa |
| title | Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa |
| title_full | Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa |
| title_fullStr | Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa |
| title_short | Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa |
| title_sort | projected changes in intra season rainfall characteristics in the niger river basin west africa |
| topic | cereal yield climate change rainfall rainfall characteristics Niger Basin West Africa |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/497 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT uvirkaaakumaga projectedchangesinintraseasonrainfallcharacteristicsinthenigerriverbasinwestafrica AT aondovertarhule projectedchangesinintraseasonrainfallcharacteristicsinthenigerriverbasinwestafrica |