| Summary: | Abstract Background To investigate the loco-regional progression-free survival (LPFS) of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with different fraction sizes for locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (LANSCLC), and to apply a new radiobiological model for tumor control probability (TCP). Methods One hundred and three LANSCLC patients treated with concurrent radiochemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. Factors potentially predictive of LPFS were assessed in the univariate and multivariate analysis. Patients were divided into group A (2.0 ≤ fraction size<2.2Gy), B (2.2 ≤ fraction size<2.5Gy), and C (2.5 ≤ fraction size≤3.1Gy) according to the tertiles of fraction size. A novel LQRG/TCP model, incorporating four “R”s of radiobiology and Gompertzian tumor growth, was developed to predict LPFS and compared with the classical LQ/TCP model. Results With a median follow-up of 22.1 months, the median LPFS was 23.8 months. Fraction size was independently prognostic of LPFS. The median LPFS of group A, B and C was 13.8, 35.7 months and not reached, respectively. Using the new LQRG/TCP model, the average absolute and relative fitting errors for LPFS were 6.9 and 19.6% for group A, 5.5 and 8.8% for group B, 6.6 and 9.5% for group C, compared with 9.5 and 29.4% for group A, 16.6 and 36.7% for group B, 24.8 and 39.1% for group C using the conventional LQ/TCP model. Conclusions Hypo-fractionated IMRT could be an effective approach for dose intensification in LANSCLC. Compared with conventional LQ model, the LQRG model showed a better performance in predicting follow-up time dependent LPFS.
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