From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19
Abstract Short‐range exposure to airborne virus‐laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily‐life settings involving tens to hundreds of...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Advanced Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/advs.202205255 |
| _version_ | 1797786159244378112 |
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| author | Simon Mendez Willy Garcia Alexandre Nicolas |
| author_facet | Simon Mendez Willy Garcia Alexandre Nicolas |
| author_sort | Simon Mendez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Short‐range exposure to airborne virus‐laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily‐life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population‐scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse‐graining their results into spatio‐temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field‐data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:04:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a48865925f54942b1980998a5ecf3e0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2198-3844 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:04:58Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advanced Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a48865925f54942b1980998a5ecf3e02023-07-06T07:39:03ZengWileyAdvanced Science2198-38442023-07-011019n/an/a10.1002/advs.202205255From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19Simon Mendez0Willy Garcia1Alexandre Nicolas2IMAG Univ. Montpellier CNRS Montpellier F‐34095 FranceInstitut Lumière Matière, CNRS Univ. Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Villeurbanne F‐69622 FranceInstitut Lumière Matière, CNRS Univ. Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Villeurbanne F‐69622 FranceAbstract Short‐range exposure to airborne virus‐laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily‐life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population‐scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse‐graining their results into spatio‐temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field‐data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections.https://doi.org/10.1002/advs.202205255crowd dynamicsepidemiologyfluid dynamicsrespiratory droplets |
| spellingShingle | Simon Mendez Willy Garcia Alexandre Nicolas From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 Advanced Science crowd dynamics epidemiology fluid dynamics respiratory droplets |
| title | From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 |
| title_full | From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 |
| title_fullStr | From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 |
| title_short | From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short‐Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID‐19 |
| title_sort | from microscopic droplets to macroscopic crowds crossing the scales in models of short range respiratory disease transmission with application to covid 19 |
| topic | crowd dynamics epidemiology fluid dynamics respiratory droplets |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/advs.202205255 |
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