Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response
Multiple, linear regression is employed to attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is to asses how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory (LRM) in the model for the temperature respon...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2015-11-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/719/2015/esd-6-719-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818518398596808704 |
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| author | K. Rypdal |
| author_facet | K. Rypdal |
| author_sort | K. Rypdal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Multiple, linear regression is employed to
attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing
components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is
to asses how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory (LRM) in the model
for the temperature response. The model response to a given forcing component
is its fingerprint and is different for a zero response time (ZRT) model and
one with an LRM response. The fingerprints are used as predictors in the
regression scheme to express the response as a linear combination of
footprints. For the instrumental period 1880–2010 CE (Common Era) the LRM
response model explains 89 % of the total variance and is also favoured
by information-theoretic model selection criteria. The anthropogenic
footprint is relatively insensitive to LRM scaling in the response and
explains almost all global warming after 1970 CE. The solar footprint is
weakly enhanced by the LRM response, while the volcanic footprint is reduced
by a factor of 2. The natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales
has no systematic trend and is dominated by the footprint of the Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation. The 2000–2010 CE hiatus is explained as a natural
variation. A corresponding analysis for the last millennium is performed,
using a Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The Little Ice Age
(LIA) is explained as mainly due to volcanic cooling or as a long-memory
response to a strong radiative disequilibrium during the Medieval Warm
Anomaly, and it is not attributed to the low solar activity during the
Maunder Minimum. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:10:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a893509839d49c98ffdbba1d1e4b1a3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:10:02Z |
| publishDate | 2015-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a893509839d49c98ffdbba1d1e4b1a32022-12-22T01:26:04ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872015-11-016271973010.5194/esd-6-719-2015Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate responseK. Rypdal0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, NorwayMultiple, linear regression is employed to attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is to asses how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory (LRM) in the model for the temperature response. The model response to a given forcing component is its fingerprint and is different for a zero response time (ZRT) model and one with an LRM response. The fingerprints are used as predictors in the regression scheme to express the response as a linear combination of footprints. For the instrumental period 1880–2010 CE (Common Era) the LRM response model explains 89 % of the total variance and is also favoured by information-theoretic model selection criteria. The anthropogenic footprint is relatively insensitive to LRM scaling in the response and explains almost all global warming after 1970 CE. The solar footprint is weakly enhanced by the LRM response, while the volcanic footprint is reduced by a factor of 2. The natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales has no systematic trend and is dominated by the footprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The 2000–2010 CE hiatus is explained as a natural variation. A corresponding analysis for the last millennium is performed, using a Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The Little Ice Age (LIA) is explained as mainly due to volcanic cooling or as a long-memory response to a strong radiative disequilibrium during the Medieval Warm Anomaly, and it is not attributed to the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum.http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/719/2015/esd-6-719-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | K. Rypdal Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response |
| title_full | Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response |
| title_fullStr | Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response |
| title_short | Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response |
| title_sort | attribution in the presence of a long memory climate response |
| url | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/6/719/2015/esd-6-719-2015.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT krypdal attributioninthepresenceofalongmemoryclimateresponse |