Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming
<p>To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019-10-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/4219/2019/hess-23-4219-2019.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818579095826464768 |
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| author | H. Xu L. Liu Y. Wang S. Wang Y. Hao J. Ma T. Jiang |
| author_facet | H. Xu L. Liu Y. Wang S. Wang Y. Hao J. Ma T. Jiang |
| author_sort | H. Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>To quantify climate change impact and difference on
basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, this study examined four river basins
covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change
in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal
runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the
uncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structure
and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the
two river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR)
located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions,
whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and were
inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in
annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff
pattern. The 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming in basins in northern and
southern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increase
by about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annual
runoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to an
increase of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projected
annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of
precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C
difference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and the
annual and monthly runoff simulation.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T06:56:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8a89d9bf41894266b9f6bdde5ad38942 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T06:56:16Z |
| publishDate | 2019-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-8a89d9bf41894266b9f6bdde5ad389422022-12-21T22:40:16ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382019-10-01234219423110.5194/hess-23-4219-2019Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warmingH. Xu0L. Liu1Y. Wang2S. Wang3Y. Hao4J. Ma5T. Jiang6National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, ChinaNational Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, ChinaChongqing Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing, 401147, ChinaAnhui Climate Center, Hefei, 230031, ChinaAnhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei, 230031, ChinaBeijing Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Beijing, 100089, ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China<p>To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the uncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structure and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the two river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR) located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and were inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff pattern. The 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C warming in basins in northern and southern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increase by about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annual runoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to an increase of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projected annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C difference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and the annual and monthly runoff simulation.</p>https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/4219/2019/hess-23-4219-2019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | H. Xu L. Liu Y. Wang S. Wang Y. Hao J. Ma T. Jiang Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_full | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_short | Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming |
| title_sort | assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in china under 1 5 and 2 0 thinsp °c global warming |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/4219/2019/hess-23-4219-2019.pdf |
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