Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners
Abstract China’s growing influence on the world has generated profound effects on the political and economic decisions of her partner nations. Recent conflict escalation between China and western countries gives rise to widespread concern over the possibility of delinking China from global trade and...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Shipping and Trade |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41072-020-00076-w |
| _version_ | 1819228538997309440 |
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| author | Gregory Whitten Xiaoyi Dai Simon Fan Yu Pang |
| author_facet | Gregory Whitten Xiaoyi Dai Simon Fan Yu Pang |
| author_sort | Gregory Whitten |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract China’s growing influence on the world has generated profound effects on the political and economic decisions of her partner nations. Recent conflict escalation between China and western countries gives rise to widespread concern over the possibility of delinking China from global trade and supply chain. By drawing on utility theory, we suggest that the political relationship is a key determinant of collective emotions of consumers and trading companies and consequently the interactions between importers and exporters. We hypothesize that warmer relations lead to larger increases (or smaller decreases) in trade while cooler relations have the opposite effect. Based on monthly data of China and her twelve trading partners from 1981 to 2019, our study provides an empirical investigation into the association between political relationship and bilateral trade flows. Our results show that shocks to relations are highly persistent and frequently cause changes in trade. However, relations themselves are little influenced by changes in trade, changes that show little persistence. We also address the US-China trade war and the observation that innovations to China’s exports to the US improve China’s relations with the US while shocks to American exports to China worsen relations from China’s perspective. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T10:58:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8ab394880a554d879282b0c7731ac0fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2364-4575 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T10:58:53Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Shipping and Trade |
| spelling | doaj.art-8ab394880a554d879282b0c7731ac0fa2022-12-21T17:49:42ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Shipping and Trade2364-45752020-10-015112410.1186/s41072-020-00076-wDo political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partnersGregory Whitten0Xiaoyi Dai1Simon Fan2Yu Pang3Department of Economics, Lingnan UniversityCorporate Sales Division, China Mobile Hong KongDepartment of Economics, Lingnan UniversitySchool of Business, Macau University of Science and TechnologyAbstract China’s growing influence on the world has generated profound effects on the political and economic decisions of her partner nations. Recent conflict escalation between China and western countries gives rise to widespread concern over the possibility of delinking China from global trade and supply chain. By drawing on utility theory, we suggest that the political relationship is a key determinant of collective emotions of consumers and trading companies and consequently the interactions between importers and exporters. We hypothesize that warmer relations lead to larger increases (or smaller decreases) in trade while cooler relations have the opposite effect. Based on monthly data of China and her twelve trading partners from 1981 to 2019, our study provides an empirical investigation into the association between political relationship and bilateral trade flows. Our results show that shocks to relations are highly persistent and frequently cause changes in trade. However, relations themselves are little influenced by changes in trade, changes that show little persistence. We also address the US-China trade war and the observation that innovations to China’s exports to the US improve China’s relations with the US while shocks to American exports to China worsen relations from China’s perspective.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41072-020-00076-wInternational tradeConflictPolitical tensionsChina |
| spellingShingle | Gregory Whitten Xiaoyi Dai Simon Fan Yu Pang Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners Journal of Shipping and Trade International trade Conflict Political tensions China |
| title | Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners |
| title_full | Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners |
| title_fullStr | Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners |
| title_short | Do political relations affect international trade? Evidence from China’s twelve trading partners |
| title_sort | do political relations affect international trade evidence from china s twelve trading partners |
| topic | International trade Conflict Political tensions China |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41072-020-00076-w |
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