A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita
The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about economic c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Economies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/9/231 |
| _version_ | 1827726465040384000 |
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| author | Antonio Focacci |
| author_facet | Antonio Focacci |
| author_sort | Antonio Focacci |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about economic cycles. This paper analyses both the original Kondratieff data (from which the hypothesis started) and a dataset that includes GDP per capita for several significant countries. By applying the wavelet analysis (WA), the main objective of the paper is to understand whether it is plausible to support the existence of periodic fluctuations consistent with long cycles theory. The outcomes for Kondratieff’s original dataset do not show the presence of a coherent periodicity for most cases. The same conclusion can be drawn for all the GDP per capita series. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:51:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8b1a27f7e0924dd8bfd27921a8ee67db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7099 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T22:51:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economies |
| spelling | doaj.art-8b1a27f7e0924dd8bfd27921a8ee67db2023-11-19T10:18:24ZengMDPI AGEconomies2227-70992023-09-0111923110.3390/economies11090231A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per CapitaAntonio Focacci0School of Economics and Management, University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, ItalyThe existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about economic cycles. This paper analyses both the original Kondratieff data (from which the hypothesis started) and a dataset that includes GDP per capita for several significant countries. By applying the wavelet analysis (WA), the main objective of the paper is to understand whether it is plausible to support the existence of periodic fluctuations consistent with long cycles theory. The outcomes for Kondratieff’s original dataset do not show the presence of a coherent periodicity for most cases. The same conclusion can be drawn for all the GDP per capita series.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/9/231economic cyclesKondratieff cyclewavelets analysisMorlet transform |
| spellingShingle | Antonio Focacci A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita Economies economic cycles Kondratieff cycle wavelets analysis Morlet transform |
| title | A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita |
| title_full | A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita |
| title_fullStr | A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita |
| title_short | A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita |
| title_sort | wavelet investigation of periodic long swings in the economy the original data of kondratieff and some important series of gdp per capita |
| topic | economic cycles Kondratieff cycle wavelets analysis Morlet transform |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/9/231 |
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