Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons
El Niño induces a southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) warming in decaying springs by forcing the slow-propagating downwelling oceanic Rossby waves south of the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO), which could exert a great influence on the subsequent South and East Asian summer monsoons. This brings the seasonal...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acce26 |
| _version_ | 1797838450657853440 |
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| author | Zhiyuan Zhang Gen Li |
| author_facet | Zhiyuan Zhang Gen Li |
| author_sort | Zhiyuan Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | El Niño induces a southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) warming in decaying springs by forcing the slow-propagating downwelling oceanic Rossby waves south of the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO), which could exert a great influence on the subsequent South and East Asian summer monsoons. This brings the seasonal predictability to the regional monsoons. Here we identify a strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring SWIO warming during 1948–2020. This is owing to the enhancing intensity and lengthening duration of the El Niño-related warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical central Pacific in recent decades. In particular, this strengthening lagged effect of El Niño on the SWIO warming further results in more significant correlations between El Niño and the subsequent South and East Asian summer monsoons. Conceivably, this enhances the regional monsoon predictability, with potentially tremendous benefits for the socio-economic livelihood of billions of people living in the Asian monsoons. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:40:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8b45b26956e949c39e397307eaf706d4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T15:40:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-8b45b26956e949c39e397307eaf706d42023-04-27T09:46:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-015404100610.1088/2515-7620/acce26Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoonsZhiyuan Zhang0Gen Li1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5466-4991State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; College of Oceanography, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaEl Niño induces a southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) warming in decaying springs by forcing the slow-propagating downwelling oceanic Rossby waves south of the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO), which could exert a great influence on the subsequent South and East Asian summer monsoons. This brings the seasonal predictability to the regional monsoons. Here we identify a strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring SWIO warming during 1948–2020. This is owing to the enhancing intensity and lengthening duration of the El Niño-related warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical central Pacific in recent decades. In particular, this strengthening lagged effect of El Niño on the SWIO warming further results in more significant correlations between El Niño and the subsequent South and East Asian summer monsoons. Conceivably, this enhances the regional monsoon predictability, with potentially tremendous benefits for the socio-economic livelihood of billions of people living in the Asian monsoons.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acce26El Niñosouthwest indian ocean warmingsouth asian summer monsooneast asian summer monsoonseasonal prediction |
| spellingShingle | Zhiyuan Zhang Gen Li Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons Environmental Research Communications El Niño southwest indian ocean warming south asian summer monsoon east asian summer monsoon seasonal prediction |
| title | Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons |
| title_full | Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons |
| title_fullStr | Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons |
| title_short | Strengthening effect of El Niño on the following spring Indian Ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoons |
| title_sort | strengthening effect of el nino on the following spring indian ocean warming with implications for the seasonal prediction of the asian summer monsoons |
| topic | El Niño southwest indian ocean warming south asian summer monsoon east asian summer monsoon seasonal prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acce26 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhiyuanzhang strengtheningeffectofelninoonthefollowingspringindianoceanwarmingwithimplicationsfortheseasonalpredictionoftheasiansummermonsoons AT genli strengtheningeffectofelninoonthefollowingspringindianoceanwarmingwithimplicationsfortheseasonalpredictionoftheasiansummermonsoons |