Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk
Climate change (CC) clearly impacts food production, but risks on the climatic suitability of agricultural areas for vegetable crops, their pests and associated natural enemies are largely unexplored. Tomato, one of the most important vegetables in the world, is grown mostly outdoors, and may be sev...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3313 |
| _version_ | 1827870614931636224 |
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| author | Vassilis D Litskas Alain Migeon Maria Navajas Marie-Stéphane Tixier Menelaos C Stavrinides |
| author_facet | Vassilis D Litskas Alain Migeon Maria Navajas Marie-Stéphane Tixier Menelaos C Stavrinides |
| author_sort | Vassilis D Litskas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change (CC) clearly impacts food production, but risks on the climatic suitability of agricultural areas for vegetable crops, their pests and associated natural enemies are largely unexplored. Tomato, one of the most important vegetables in the world, is grown mostly outdoors, and may be severely impacted by CC. Farmers cultivating tomatoes need to adapt to an increase in the potential for outbreaks of pests favoured by CC and disruption of biological control, yet, no attempt has been made to simultaneously evaluate CC effects on a crop-pest-natural enemy system for tomato or any other crop. Here, we modelled the suitability of areas equipped with irrigation facilities (AEI) in 2050 for tomato, the two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae , a mite pest of tomato among more than 200 crops, and its key predator Phytoseiulus persimilis. We evaluated the suitability of AEI for tomato production under a 1.6 °C warming by 2050, within the targets of the Paris agreement. Projections show that climatic conditions become unsuitable for tomato production on 30%–100% of AEI for seven out of the 29 top tomato producing countries of the world. Model predictions suggest that two-spotted spider mite potential for outbreaks would increase substantially in nine countries in Europe, Africa and Asia, while biological control failures would occur globally. Model results have a significant relationship with growth rates for the three species measured in outdoor experiments, and farmer/expert perceptions on two-spotted spider mite outbreak severity captured via interviews. The expansion of AEI in other agricultural areas in the sub-Saharan Africa may offset losses of suitable land. However, several nations in the Middle East and South Asia with prevalent small scale agriculture would experience devastating impacts because of the unsuitability of conditions for tomato production and the potential increase in two-spotted spider mite outbreaks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8b4c3954976a4e63a33894a0887d2bc5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:59:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-8b4c3954976a4e63a33894a0887d2bc52023-08-09T14:43:13ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-0114808404110.1088/1748-9326/ab3313Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher riskVassilis D Litskas0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0399-2063Alain Migeon1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4041-5158Maria Navajas2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0702-4238Marie-Stéphane Tixier3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5206-7360Menelaos C Stavrinides4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6459-1941Cyprus University of Technology , Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biotechnology and Food Science, Arch. Kyprianos 30, Limassol, 3036, CyprusINRA, UMR CBGP (INRA/IRD/Cirad/Montpellier SupAgro), 755 Avenue du Campus Agropolis, CS 30016, F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez, FranceINRA, UMR CBGP (INRA/IRD/Cirad/Montpellier SupAgro), 755 Avenue du Campus Agropolis, CS 30016, F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez, FranceINRA, UMR CBGP (INRA/IRD/Cirad/Montpellier SupAgro), 755 Avenue du Campus Agropolis, CS 30016, F-34988 Montferrier-sur-Lez, FranceCyprus University of Technology , Department of Agricultural Sciences, Biotechnology and Food Science, Arch. Kyprianos 30, Limassol, 3036, CyprusClimate change (CC) clearly impacts food production, but risks on the climatic suitability of agricultural areas for vegetable crops, their pests and associated natural enemies are largely unexplored. Tomato, one of the most important vegetables in the world, is grown mostly outdoors, and may be severely impacted by CC. Farmers cultivating tomatoes need to adapt to an increase in the potential for outbreaks of pests favoured by CC and disruption of biological control, yet, no attempt has been made to simultaneously evaluate CC effects on a crop-pest-natural enemy system for tomato or any other crop. Here, we modelled the suitability of areas equipped with irrigation facilities (AEI) in 2050 for tomato, the two-spotted spider mite, Tetranychus urticae , a mite pest of tomato among more than 200 crops, and its key predator Phytoseiulus persimilis. We evaluated the suitability of AEI for tomato production under a 1.6 °C warming by 2050, within the targets of the Paris agreement. Projections show that climatic conditions become unsuitable for tomato production on 30%–100% of AEI for seven out of the 29 top tomato producing countries of the world. Model predictions suggest that two-spotted spider mite potential for outbreaks would increase substantially in nine countries in Europe, Africa and Asia, while biological control failures would occur globally. Model results have a significant relationship with growth rates for the three species measured in outdoor experiments, and farmer/expert perceptions on two-spotted spider mite outbreak severity captured via interviews. The expansion of AEI in other agricultural areas in the sub-Saharan Africa may offset losses of suitable land. However, several nations in the Middle East and South Asia with prevalent small scale agriculture would experience devastating impacts because of the unsuitability of conditions for tomato production and the potential increase in two-spotted spider mite outbreaks.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3313climate changeParis agreementagriculturepestbiological control |
| spellingShingle | Vassilis D Litskas Alain Migeon Maria Navajas Marie-Stéphane Tixier Menelaos C Stavrinides Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk Environmental Research Letters climate change Paris agreement agriculture pest biological control |
| title | Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| title_full | Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| title_short | Impacts of climate change on tomato, a notorious pest and its natural enemy: small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| title_sort | impacts of climate change on tomato a notorious pest and its natural enemy small scale agriculture at higher risk |
| topic | climate change Paris agreement agriculture pest biological control |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3313 |
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