Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models
In food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitabl...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Slavonski Brod, Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering in Osijek
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Tehnički Vjesnik |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/274461 |
| _version_ | 1797207821152944128 |
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| author | Güzin Tirkeş Cenk Güray Neş’e Çelebi |
| author_facet | Güzin Tirkeş Cenk Güray Neş’e Çelebi |
| author_sort | Güzin Tirkeş |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between Trend Analysis, Decomposition and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of jam and sherbet product demands. Data comprised the series of monthly sales from January 2013 to December 2014 obtained from a private company. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used. In this study, the HW and Decomposition models obtained better results regarding the performance metrics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:29:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8b95e571bff44222ae48b35c230d0678 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1330-3651 1848-6339 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:29:00Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Slavonski Brod, Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering in Osijek |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tehnički Vjesnik |
| spelling | doaj.art-8b95e571bff44222ae48b35c230d06782024-04-15T14:20:56ZengFaculty of Mechanical Engineering in Slavonski Brod, Faculty of Electrical Engineering in Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering in OsijekTehnički Vjesnik1330-36511848-63392017-01-0124Supplement 250350910.17559/TV-20160615204011Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition modelsGüzin Tirkeş0Cenk Güray1Neş’e Çelebi2Atılım University, Faculty of Engineering, Dept. of Computer Engineering, Kızılcaşar Mahallesi, 06830 Gölbaşı/Ankara, TurkeyYıldırım Beyazıt University, Güvenevler Mahallesi, Cinnah Cd. No. 16, 06690 Çankaya/Ankara, TurkeyAtılım University, Faculty of Engineering, Dept. of Industrial Engineering, 06836 İncek/Ankara, TurkeyIn food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between Trend Analysis, Decomposition and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of jam and sherbet product demands. Data comprised the series of monthly sales from January 2013 to December 2014 obtained from a private company. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used. In this study, the HW and Decomposition models obtained better results regarding the performance metrics.https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/274461decompositiondemand forecastingfood industryHolt-Winterstime series |
| spellingShingle | Güzin Tirkeş Cenk Güray Neş’e Çelebi Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models Tehnički Vjesnik decomposition demand forecasting food industry Holt-Winters time series |
| title | Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models |
| title_full | Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models |
| title_fullStr | Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models |
| title_short | Demand forecasting: a comparison between the Holt-Winters, trend analysis and decomposition models |
| title_sort | demand forecasting a comparison between the holt winters trend analysis and decomposition models |
| topic | decomposition demand forecasting food industry Holt-Winters time series |
| url | https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/274461 |
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