Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models
The real estate market in Hong Kong plays an important role in its economy. The property prices have been increasing a lot since 2009, which have become a major concern. However, few studies have been done to forecast the property price indices in Hong Kong. In this paper, two grey models, GM(1,1) a...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2017-07-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/1801 |
| _version_ | 1818892950065643520 |
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| author | Yongtao Tan Hui Xu Eddie C. M. Hui |
| author_facet | Yongtao Tan Hui Xu Eddie C. M. Hui |
| author_sort | Yongtao Tan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The real estate market in Hong Kong plays an important role in its economy. The property prices have been increasing a lot since 2009, which have become a major concern. However, few studies have been done to forecast the property price indices in Hong Kong. In this paper, two grey models, GM(1,1) and GM(0,N), are introduced for the forecasting. The results show that GM(1,1) has a better performance when forecasting with stable trend data, while GM(0,N) is more suitable for forecasting data in fluctuating trend. The sensitivity analysis for GM(0,N) shows that Population(POP) and Best Lending Rate(BLR) are significantly sensitive factors for data in stable trend. While for the fluctuating data, sensitivity of each factor presents uncertainties. This study also compares the forecasting performance of grey models with the ANN model and ARIMA model. The study demonstrates that grey models are more suitable for forecasting the Hong Kong property price indices than others. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T18:04:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8ba047abe8a2416184d336d6d3c0b7c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1648-715X 1648-9179 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T18:04:50Z |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | Vilnius Gediminas Technical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-8ba047abe8a2416184d336d6d3c0b7c72022-12-21T20:11:30ZengVilnius Gediminas Technical UniversityInternational Journal of Strategic Property Management1648-715X1648-91792017-07-0121310.3846/1648715X.2016.1249535Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey modelsYongtao Tan0Hui Xu1Eddie C. M. Hui2Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, ChinaDepartment of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China / School of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, ChinaDepartment of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, ChinaThe real estate market in Hong Kong plays an important role in its economy. The property prices have been increasing a lot since 2009, which have become a major concern. However, few studies have been done to forecast the property price indices in Hong Kong. In this paper, two grey models, GM(1,1) and GM(0,N), are introduced for the forecasting. The results show that GM(1,1) has a better performance when forecasting with stable trend data, while GM(0,N) is more suitable for forecasting data in fluctuating trend. The sensitivity analysis for GM(0,N) shows that Population(POP) and Best Lending Rate(BLR) are significantly sensitive factors for data in stable trend. While for the fluctuating data, sensitivity of each factor presents uncertainties. This study also compares the forecasting performance of grey models with the ANN model and ARIMA model. The study demonstrates that grey models are more suitable for forecasting the Hong Kong property price indices than others.https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/1801Grey modelForecastReal estate marketProperty price indicesHong Kong |
| spellingShingle | Yongtao Tan Hui Xu Eddie C. M. Hui Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models International Journal of Strategic Property Management Grey model Forecast Real estate market Property price indices Hong Kong |
| title | Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models |
| title_full | Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models |
| title_short | Forecasting property price indices in Hong Kong based on grey models |
| title_sort | forecasting property price indices in hong kong based on grey models |
| topic | Grey model Forecast Real estate market Property price indices Hong Kong |
| url | https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/1801 |
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