The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models
Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate res...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.719024/full |
| _version_ | 1818588489648701440 |
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| author | Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum |
| author_facet | Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum |
| author_sort | Marika M. Holland |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T09:25:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b37 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T09:25:34Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-8bc63d752190418c9684037042eb7b372022-12-21T22:36:39ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632021-09-01910.3389/feart.2021.719024719024The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate ModelsMarika M. HollandLaura LandrumUnder rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.719024/fullarctic amplificationclimate changesea iceclimate modellingtime of emergence (TOE) |
| spellingShingle | Marika M. Holland Laura Landrum The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models Frontiers in Earth Science arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) |
| title | The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
| title_full | The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
| title_fullStr | The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
| title_short | The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models |
| title_sort | emergence and transient nature of arctic amplification in coupled climate models |
| topic | arctic amplification climate change sea ice climate modelling time of emergence (TOE) |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.719024/full |
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