Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan
Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2019-06-01
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| Series: | Environments |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/6/6/71 |
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| author | Syed Ali Asad Naqvi Bulbul Jan Saima Shaikh Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi Liaqat Ali Waseem Muhammad Nasar-u-minAllah Nasir Abbas |
| author_facet | Syed Ali Asad Naqvi Bulbul Jan Saima Shaikh Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi Liaqat Ali Waseem Muhammad Nasar-u-minAllah Nasir Abbas |
| author_sort | Syed Ali Asad Naqvi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R<sup>2</sup> = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R<sup>2</sup> = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R<sup>2</sup> = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:56:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8bd323e89e52480fbec6b55078ec6a0d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-3298 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T19:56:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environments |
| spelling | doaj.art-8bd323e89e52480fbec6b55078ec6a0d2022-12-22T03:18:38ZengMDPI AGEnvironments2076-32982019-06-01667110.3390/environments6060071environments6060071Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, PakistanSyed Ali Asad Naqvi0Bulbul Jan1Saima Shaikh2Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi3Liaqat Ali Waseem4Muhammad Nasar-u-minAllah5Nasir Abbas6Department of Geography, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, PakistanThe Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, PakistanDepartment of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, PakistanDepartment of Geography, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, PakistanDepartment of Geography, Government College University Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, PakistanDepartment of Geography, Govt. Postgraduate College Gojra, Gojra 56000, PakistanDepartment of Geography, Government College University Lahore, Lahore 54000, PakistanDengue fever (DF) is a national health problem in Pakistan. It has become endemic in Lahore after its recent reemergence in 2016. This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the district of Lahore through statistical approaches. Initially, the climatic variability was explored using a time series analysis on climatic factors from 1970 to 2012. Furthermore, ordinary and multiple linear regression analyses were used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue incidence from 2007 to 2012. The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, which shaped a dengue-supporting environment. It also showed a positive temporal relationship between climatic factors and DF. Moreover, the regression analyses revealed a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence. The ordinary linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R<sup>2</sup> = 34.2%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R<sup>2</sup> = 38.0%. The multiple regression analysis showed a monthly significance of R<sup>2</sup> = 44.6%. Consequently, our study shows a substantial synergism between dengue and climatic factors in Lahore. The present study could help in unveiling new ways for health prediction modeling of dengue and might be applicable in other subtropical and temperate climates.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/6/6/71time serieslinear regressionrainfalltemperatureclimateDF |
| spellingShingle | Syed Ali Asad Naqvi Bulbul Jan Saima Shaikh Syed Jamil Hasan Kazmi Liaqat Ali Waseem Muhammad Nasar-u-minAllah Nasir Abbas Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan Environments time series linear regression rainfall temperature climate DF |
| title | Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan |
| title_full | Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan |
| title_short | Changing Climatic Factors Favor Dengue Transmission in Lahore, Pakistan |
| title_sort | changing climatic factors favor dengue transmission in lahore pakistan |
| topic | time series linear regression rainfall temperature climate DF |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/6/6/71 |
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