Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China
The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were...
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7/1888 |
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| author | Yanyun Xiang Yi Wang Yaning Chen Yifei Bai Leyuan Zhang Qifei Zhang |
| author_facet | Yanyun Xiang Yi Wang Yaning Chen Yifei Bai Leyuan Zhang Qifei Zhang |
| author_sort | Yanyun Xiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:44:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8bdd927080794ecba9c31168a2756ee9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:44:39Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-8bdd927080794ecba9c31168a2756ee92023-11-20T05:36:16ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-07-01127188810.3390/w12071888Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, ChinaYanyun Xiang0Yi Wang1Yaning Chen2Yifei Bai3Leyuan Zhang4Qifei Zhang5State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaThe aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7/1888hydrological drought riskcoupla functionsstandardized runoff indexrun theory |
| spellingShingle | Yanyun Xiang Yi Wang Yaning Chen Yifei Bai Leyuan Zhang Qifei Zhang Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China Water hydrological drought risk coupla functions standardized runoff index run theory |
| title | Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China |
| title_full | Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China |
| title_fullStr | Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China |
| title_short | Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China |
| title_sort | hydrological drought risk assessment using a multidimensional copula function approach in arid inland basins china |
| topic | hydrological drought risk coupla functions standardized runoff index run theory |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7/1888 |
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