Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment
In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending a...
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Format: | Article |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2017-02-01
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Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042716300410 |
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author | Victor M. Moreno Baltazar Espinoza Derdei Bichara Susan A. Holechek Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
author_facet | Victor M. Moreno Baltazar Espinoza Derdei Bichara Susan A. Holechek Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
author_sort | Victor M. Moreno |
collection | DOAJ |
description | In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of repellents. Further, in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil, the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was stressed. In this paper, we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty, crime and violence. Specifically, the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV outbreaks. We make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility, within highly distinct environments, may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but everywhere. Outcomes depend on existing mobility patterns, levels of disease risk, and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas, particularly in those where violence is systemic. The results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of mobility. It quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of heterogeneity. The number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations. Keywords: Vector-borne diseases, Zika virus, Residence times, Multi-patch model |
first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:47:43Z |
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id | doaj.art-8c1863c9d3584f929de41ccbcfcd9ad0 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2468-0427 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:47:43Z |
publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
record_format | Article |
series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
spelling | doaj.art-8c1863c9d3584f929de41ccbcfcd9ad02024-04-16T12:59:25ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272017-02-01212134Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environmentVictor M. Moreno0Baltazar Espinoza1Derdei Bichara2Susan A. Holechek3Carlos Castillo-Chavez4Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 873901, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United States; Corresponding author.Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 873901, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United StatesSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 873901, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United States; Department of Mathematics and Center for Computational and Applied Mathematics, California State University, Fullerton, CA 92831, United StatesSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 873901, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United States; Biodesign Center for Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, Biodesign Institute, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-5401, United States; School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4501, United StatesSimon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 873901, Tempe, AZ 85287-3901, United States; Departamento the Ingenieria Biomedica, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogota, Colombia; Rector's Office, Yachay Tech University, Urcuqui, EcuadorIn November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, an event followed by an explosive outbreak that generated over 6000 suspected cases in a period of two months. National agencies began implementing control measures that included vector control and recommending an increased use of repellents. Further, in response to the alarming and growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil, the importance of avoiding pregnancies for two years was stressed. In this paper, we explore the role of mobility within communities characterized by extreme poverty, crime and violence. Specifically, the role of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected highly distinct communities is explored in the context of ZIKV outbreaks. We make use of a Lagrangian modeling approach within a two-patch setting in order to highlight the possible effects that short-term mobility, within highly distinct environments, may have on the dynamics of ZIKV outbreak when the overall goal is to reduce the number of cases not just in the most affluent areas but everywhere. Outcomes depend on existing mobility patterns, levels of disease risk, and the ability of federal or state public health services to invest in resource limited areas, particularly in those where violence is systemic. The results of simulations in highly polarized and simplified scenarios are used to assess the role of mobility. It quickly became evident that matching observed patterns of ZIKV outbreaks could not be captured without incorporating increasing levels of heterogeneity. The number of distinct patches and variations on patch connectivity structure required to match ZIKV patterns could not be met within the highly aggregated model that is used in the simulations. Keywords: Vector-borne diseases, Zika virus, Residence times, Multi-patch modelhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042716300410 |
spellingShingle | Victor M. Moreno Baltazar Espinoza Derdei Bichara Susan A. Holechek Carlos Castillo-Chavez Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment Infectious Disease Modelling |
title | Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
title_full | Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
title_fullStr | Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
title_full_unstemmed | Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
title_short | Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
title_sort | role of short term dispersal on the dynamics of zika virus in an extreme idealized environment |
url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042716300410 |
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