Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade

Climate change and trade are closely related. Climate may alter the comparative advantages across countries, which may in turn trigger changes in trade patterns. Trade itself may constitute an adaptation strategy, moving excesses of agri-food supply to regions with shortages, and this in turn may ex...

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Main Authors: Martina Bozzola, Emilia Lamonaca, Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2023-10-01
Series:Ecological Indicators
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008221
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author Martina Bozzola
Emilia Lamonaca
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
author_facet Martina Bozzola
Emilia Lamonaca
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
author_sort Martina Bozzola
collection DOAJ
description Climate change and trade are closely related. Climate may alter the comparative advantages across countries, which may in turn trigger changes in trade patterns. Trade itself may constitute an adaptation strategy, moving excesses of agri-food supply to regions with shortages, and this in turn may explain changes in land-use. We investigate these linkages, showing that the changes in climate affect counties’ trade value and contribute to reshaping trade patterns. First, we quantify the long-term impacts of climate on the value of agri-food exports, implicitly considering the ability of countries to adapt, and show that higher marginal temperatures and rainfall levels tend to be beneficial for countries’ exports. Following a gravity model approach, we then link the evolving trade patterns to climate change adaptation strategies. We find that the larger the difference in temperatures and rainfall levels between trading partners, the higher the value of bilateral exports. Furthermore, while developed and developing exporters are both sensitive to climate change and to cross-countries heterogeneity in climate, we found their responses to changes in climate to be quite diverse.
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spelling doaj.art-8c19781fd0534e589f3e6c8e4ceceb202023-09-16T05:29:39ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-10-01154110680Impacts of climate change on global agri-food tradeMartina Bozzola0Emilia Lamonaca1Fabio Gaetano Santeramo2Queen’s University, Belfast, UK; ZHAW (CH), SwitzerlandUniversity of Foggia, ItalyUniversity of Foggia, Italy; European University Institute, Italy; Corresponding author at: Via Napoli 25, 71121 Foggia, Italy.Climate change and trade are closely related. Climate may alter the comparative advantages across countries, which may in turn trigger changes in trade patterns. Trade itself may constitute an adaptation strategy, moving excesses of agri-food supply to regions with shortages, and this in turn may explain changes in land-use. We investigate these linkages, showing that the changes in climate affect counties’ trade value and contribute to reshaping trade patterns. First, we quantify the long-term impacts of climate on the value of agri-food exports, implicitly considering the ability of countries to adapt, and show that higher marginal temperatures and rainfall levels tend to be beneficial for countries’ exports. Following a gravity model approach, we then link the evolving trade patterns to climate change adaptation strategies. We find that the larger the difference in temperatures and rainfall levels between trading partners, the higher the value of bilateral exports. Furthermore, while developed and developing exporters are both sensitive to climate change and to cross-countries heterogeneity in climate, we found their responses to changes in climate to be quite diverse.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008221Climate normalClimate heterogeneityExportEconomic development
spellingShingle Martina Bozzola
Emilia Lamonaca
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
Ecological Indicators
Climate normal
Climate heterogeneity
Export
Economic development
title Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
title_full Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
title_fullStr Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
title_short Impacts of climate change on global agri-food trade
title_sort impacts of climate change on global agri food trade
topic Climate normal
Climate heterogeneity
Export
Economic development
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008221
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