Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever
Objective of the study was to develop a method of assessment and forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases using DALY index by the example of Crimean hemorrhagic fever. WHO expert-designed DALY index was adapted for use in the territory of the Russian Fed...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Federal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”
2014-12-01
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| Series: | Проблемы особо опасных инфекций |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/178 |
| _version_ | 1797220882668584960 |
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| author | V. B. Kirillov S. L. Kirillova S. V. Borisevich E. P. Lukin P. A. Grabarev |
| author_facet | V. B. Kirillov S. L. Kirillova S. V. Borisevich E. P. Lukin P. A. Grabarev |
| author_sort | V. B. Kirillov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective of the study was to develop a method of assessment and forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases using DALY index by the example of Crimean hemorrhagic fever. WHO expert-designed DALY index was adapted for use in the territory of the Russian Federation with due account of GDP values and age distribution among the population. Put forward was a scheme for prognostication of a possible social damage caused by infectious disease outbreak, expressed in the aggregate number of wasted years of productive life and economic loss resulted from GDP decrement. The method developed can be used for forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases and evaluation of effectiveness as regards anti-epidemic and therapeutic interventions. Carried out has been assessment of economic and social losses which resulted from outbreaks of Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Southern Federal District of Russia inclusive of the data on morbidity rates over the period of 1999-2010. Major economic damage is factored by the labor forces loss consequent to fatal cases of infection. Such a method of prognostication based on DALY index has been implemented in the territory of the Russian Federation for the first time ever. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T13:43:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8c464350bef14e459cce6cabcb39aae9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0370-1069 2658-719X |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:56:36Z |
| publishDate | 2014-12-01 |
| publisher | Federal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Проблемы особо опасных инфекций |
| spelling | doaj.art-8c464350bef14e459cce6cabcb39aae92024-04-05T16:47:10ZrusFederal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”Проблемы особо опасных инфекций0370-10692658-719X2014-12-0104172010.21055/0370-1069-2014-4-17-20178Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic FeverV. B. Kirillov0S. L. Kirillova1S. V. Borisevich2E. P. Lukin3P. A. Grabarev4The 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of DefenceThe 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of DefenceThe 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of DefenceThe 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of DefenceThe 48th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of DefenceObjective of the study was to develop a method of assessment and forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases using DALY index by the example of Crimean hemorrhagic fever. WHO expert-designed DALY index was adapted for use in the territory of the Russian Federation with due account of GDP values and age distribution among the population. Put forward was a scheme for prognostication of a possible social damage caused by infectious disease outbreak, expressed in the aggregate number of wasted years of productive life and economic loss resulted from GDP decrement. The method developed can be used for forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases and evaluation of effectiveness as regards anti-epidemic and therapeutic interventions. Carried out has been assessment of economic and social losses which resulted from outbreaks of Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Southern Federal District of Russia inclusive of the data on morbidity rates over the period of 1999-2010. Major economic damage is factored by the labor forces loss consequent to fatal cases of infection. Such a method of prognostication based on DALY index has been implemented in the territory of the Russian Federation for the first time ever.https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/178социально-экономический ущербпрогнозированиеиндекс dalyкрымская геморрагическая лихорадкаsocio-economic damageforecastingdaly indexcrimean hemorrhagic fever |
| spellingShingle | V. B. Kirillov S. L. Kirillova S. V. Borisevich E. P. Lukin P. A. Grabarev Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever Проблемы особо опасных инфекций социально-экономический ущерб прогнозирование индекс daly крымская геморрагическая лихорадка socio-economic damage forecasting daly index crimean hemorrhagic fever |
| title | Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever |
| title_full | Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever |
| title_short | Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever |
| title_sort | forecasting of the socio economic damage resulting from outbreaks of infectious diseases by the example of crimean hemorrhagic fever |
| topic | социально-экономический ущерб прогнозирование индекс daly крымская геморрагическая лихорадка socio-economic damage forecasting daly index crimean hemorrhagic fever |
| url | https://journal.microbe.ru/jour/article/view/178 |
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