A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients
BackgroundTo construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.MethodsA retrospective nested case–control study was performed, in which a total of 81 esophageal fistula patients and 243 controls from 2014 to 2020 in t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2021.785850/full |
| _version_ | 1819007667482394624 |
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| author | Zhongxuan Gui Huiquan Liu Weijiong Shi Yuechen Xu Han Qian Fan Wang |
| author_facet | Zhongxuan Gui Huiquan Liu Weijiong Shi Yuechen Xu Han Qian Fan Wang |
| author_sort | Zhongxuan Gui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundTo construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.MethodsA retrospective nested case–control study was performed, in which a total of 81 esophageal fistula patients and 243 controls from 2014 to 2020 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University were enrolled. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis. The following methods including ROC curve, C-index, calibration curves, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to evaluate this nomogram.ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analysis showed that T4 stage, level 4 stenosis, ulcerative esophageal cancer, prealbumin, and maximum diameters of GTV and NLR were the independent risk factors of esophageal fistula. Accordingly, a nomogram incorporating the aforementioned six parameters was constructed. The AUC was 0.848 (95% CI 0.901–0.895), indicating a high prediction accuracy of this nomogram. Further evaluation of this model showed that the C-index was 0.847, while the bias-corrected C-index after internal validation was 0.833. The Brier score was 0.127. The calibration curves presented good concordance, and the DCA revealed promising clinical application.ConclusionsThe nomogram presents accurate and applicable prediction for the esophageal fistula risk in esophageal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:28:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8c47c3fbedad4c75bc81a6ca0dd5e2c5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T00:28:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-8c47c3fbedad4c75bc81a6ca0dd5e2c52022-12-21T19:21:57ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2022-01-011110.3389/fonc.2021.785850785850A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer PatientsZhongxuan GuiHuiquan LiuWeijiong ShiYuechen XuHan QianFan WangBackgroundTo construct and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.MethodsA retrospective nested case–control study was performed, in which a total of 81 esophageal fistula patients and 243 controls from 2014 to 2020 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University were enrolled. Factors included in the nomogram were determined by univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis. The following methods including ROC curve, C-index, calibration curves, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to evaluate this nomogram.ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analysis showed that T4 stage, level 4 stenosis, ulcerative esophageal cancer, prealbumin, and maximum diameters of GTV and NLR were the independent risk factors of esophageal fistula. Accordingly, a nomogram incorporating the aforementioned six parameters was constructed. The AUC was 0.848 (95% CI 0.901–0.895), indicating a high prediction accuracy of this nomogram. Further evaluation of this model showed that the C-index was 0.847, while the bias-corrected C-index after internal validation was 0.833. The Brier score was 0.127. The calibration curves presented good concordance, and the DCA revealed promising clinical application.ConclusionsThe nomogram presents accurate and applicable prediction for the esophageal fistula risk in esophageal cancer patients receiving radiotherapy.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2021.785850/fullesophageal cancerradiotherapyesophageal fistularisk factorsnomogram |
| spellingShingle | Zhongxuan Gui Huiquan Liu Weijiong Shi Yuechen Xu Han Qian Fan Wang A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients Frontiers in Oncology esophageal cancer radiotherapy esophageal fistula risk factors nomogram |
| title | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients |
| title_full | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients |
| title_fullStr | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients |
| title_short | A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Radiotherapy-Related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer Patients |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting the risk of radiotherapy related esophageal fistula in esophageal cancer patients |
| topic | esophageal cancer radiotherapy esophageal fistula risk factors nomogram |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2021.785850/full |
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