Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
Climate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the pr...
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-11-01
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Series: | Energy Reports |
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Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965 |
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author | Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas Garlapati Nagababu Surendra Singh Kachhwaha |
author_facet | Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas Garlapati Nagababu Surendra Singh Kachhwaha |
author_sort | Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Climate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the present work, six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) climate models and their ensembles were statistically examined in the Indian offshore region using in-situ buoy readings and ERA5 reanalysis data. Statistical parameters like correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD, and standard deviation are computed to examine the applicable model at buoy locations. With ERA5 wind speeds, the overlapping percentage of climate models is later analyzed for the Indian offshore regions. The ensemble model statistically outperforms individual climate models at buoy sites, with 77% overlap with ERA5 wind speeds in the offshore region. Further, the trends and cumulative variations in wind speeds are calculated for ensemble models under two emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the future, the North-East (NE) zone will have the most advantageous change in wind speeds (0.21 to 8.68%), whereas the North-West (NW) area will have a negative cumulative change in wind speeds. |
first_indexed | 2024-04-10T22:42:43Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-8c5cd7fa23a74082bc0e0ddca795e202 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2352-4847 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-04-10T22:42:43Z |
publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
publisher | Elsevier |
record_format | Article |
series | Energy Reports |
spelling | doaj.art-8c5cd7fa23a74082bc0e0ddca795e2022023-01-16T04:08:13ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472022-11-018513519Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore regionBhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas0Garlapati Nagababu1Surendra Singh Kachhwaha2School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaCorresponding author.; School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaSchool of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaClimate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the present work, six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) climate models and their ensembles were statistically examined in the Indian offshore region using in-situ buoy readings and ERA5 reanalysis data. Statistical parameters like correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD, and standard deviation are computed to examine the applicable model at buoy locations. With ERA5 wind speeds, the overlapping percentage of climate models is later analyzed for the Indian offshore regions. The ensemble model statistically outperforms individual climate models at buoy sites, with 77% overlap with ERA5 wind speeds in the offshore region. Further, the trends and cumulative variations in wind speeds are calculated for ensemble models under two emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the future, the North-East (NE) zone will have the most advantageous change in wind speeds (0.21 to 8.68%), whereas the North-West (NW) area will have a negative cumulative change in wind speeds.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965Wind speedTrend analysisClimate modelsOverlap percentage |
spellingShingle | Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas Garlapati Nagababu Surendra Singh Kachhwaha Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region Energy Reports Wind speed Trend analysis Climate models Overlap percentage |
title | Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region |
title_full | Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region |
title_fullStr | Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region |
title_full_unstemmed | Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region |
title_short | Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region |
title_sort | future wind speed trends in the indian offshore region |
topic | Wind speed Trend analysis Climate models Overlap percentage |
url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965 |
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