Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region

Climate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the pr...

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Main Authors: Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas, Garlapati Nagababu, Surendra Singh Kachhwaha
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2022-11-01
Series:Energy Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965
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author Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas
Garlapati Nagababu
Surendra Singh Kachhwaha
author_facet Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas
Garlapati Nagababu
Surendra Singh Kachhwaha
author_sort Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas
collection DOAJ
description Climate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the present work, six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) climate models and their ensembles were statistically examined in the Indian offshore region using in-situ buoy readings and ERA5 reanalysis data. Statistical parameters like correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD, and standard deviation are computed to examine the applicable model at buoy locations. With ERA5 wind speeds, the overlapping percentage of climate models is later analyzed for the Indian offshore regions. The ensemble model statistically outperforms individual climate models at buoy sites, with 77% overlap with ERA5 wind speeds in the offshore region. Further, the trends and cumulative variations in wind speeds are calculated for ensemble models under two emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the future, the North-East (NE) zone will have the most advantageous change in wind speeds (0.21 to 8.68%), whereas the North-West (NW) area will have a negative cumulative change in wind speeds.
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spelling doaj.art-8c5cd7fa23a74082bc0e0ddca795e2022023-01-16T04:08:13ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472022-11-018513519Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore regionBhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas0Garlapati Nagababu1Surendra Singh Kachhwaha2School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaCorresponding author.; School of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaSchool of Technology, Pandit Deendayal Energy University, Gandhinagar, 382007, Gujarat, IndiaClimate models help assess the future availability of wind speeds to extract wind power; however, these climate models are mathematical models that include uncertainty in wind forecasts. Finding an appropriate climate model for analyzing future wind power generation is critical. Therefore, in the present work, six Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) climate models and their ensembles were statistically examined in the Indian offshore region using in-situ buoy readings and ERA5 reanalysis data. Statistical parameters like correlation coefficient, bias, RMSD, and standard deviation are computed to examine the applicable model at buoy locations. With ERA5 wind speeds, the overlapping percentage of climate models is later analyzed for the Indian offshore regions. The ensemble model statistically outperforms individual climate models at buoy sites, with 77% overlap with ERA5 wind speeds in the offshore region. Further, the trends and cumulative variations in wind speeds are calculated for ensemble models under two emission scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In the future, the North-East (NE) zone will have the most advantageous change in wind speeds (0.21 to 8.68%), whereas the North-West (NW) area will have a negative cumulative change in wind speeds.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965Wind speedTrend analysisClimate modelsOverlap percentage
spellingShingle Bhasuru Abhinaya Srinivas
Garlapati Nagababu
Surendra Singh Kachhwaha
Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
Energy Reports
Wind speed
Trend analysis
Climate models
Overlap percentage
title Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
title_full Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
title_fullStr Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
title_full_unstemmed Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
title_short Future wind speed trends in the Indian offshore region
title_sort future wind speed trends in the indian offshore region
topic Wind speed
Trend analysis
Climate models
Overlap percentage
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722019965
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