The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation
African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging disease currently spreading at the interface between wild boar and pig farms in Europe and Asia. Current disease control regulations, which involve massive culling with significant economic and animal welfare costs, need to be improved. Modelling enables rele...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000585 |
| _version_ | 1828240971054186496 |
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| author | Sébastien Picault Timothée Vergne Matthieu Mancini Servane Bareille Pauline Ezanno |
| author_facet | Sébastien Picault Timothée Vergne Matthieu Mancini Servane Bareille Pauline Ezanno |
| author_sort | Sébastien Picault |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging disease currently spreading at the interface between wild boar and pig farms in Europe and Asia. Current disease control regulations, which involve massive culling with significant economic and animal welfare costs, need to be improved. Modelling enables relevant control measures to be explored, but conducting the exercise during an epidemic is extremely difficult. Modelling challenges enhance modellers’ ability to timely advice policy makers, improve their readiness when facing emerging threats, and promote international collaborations. The ASF-Challenge, which ran between August 2020 and January 2021, was the first modelling challenge in animal health. In this paper, we describe the objectives and rules of the challenge. We then demonstrate the mechanistic multi-host model that was used to mimic as accurately as possible an ASF-like epidemic, provide a detailed explanation of the surveillance and intervention strategies that generated the synthetic data, and describe the different management strategies that were assessed by the competing modelling teams. We then outline the different technical steps of the challenge as well as its environment. Finally, we synthesize the lessons we learnt along the way to guide future modelling challenges in animal health. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:49:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8c85bd9852c442c6ba8adf6ca762e4df |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:49:58Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-8c85bd9852c442c6ba8adf6ca762e4df2022-12-22T03:15:31ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652022-09-0140100616The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generationSébastien Picault0Timothée Vergne1Matthieu Mancini2Servane Bareille3Pauline Ezanno4INRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300 Nantes, France; Correspondence to: BIOEPAR, Oniris, La Chantrerie, route de Gachet, CS 40706, 44307 Nantes cedex 3, France.IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRAE, ENVT, Toulouse, FranceINRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300 Nantes, France; IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRAE, ENVT, Toulouse, FranceINRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300 Nantes, France; IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRAE, ENVT, Toulouse, FranceINRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300 Nantes, FranceAfrican swine fever (ASF) is an emerging disease currently spreading at the interface between wild boar and pig farms in Europe and Asia. Current disease control regulations, which involve massive culling with significant economic and animal welfare costs, need to be improved. Modelling enables relevant control measures to be explored, but conducting the exercise during an epidemic is extremely difficult. Modelling challenges enhance modellers’ ability to timely advice policy makers, improve their readiness when facing emerging threats, and promote international collaborations. The ASF-Challenge, which ran between August 2020 and January 2021, was the first modelling challenge in animal health. In this paper, we describe the objectives and rules of the challenge. We then demonstrate the mechanistic multi-host model that was used to mimic as accurately as possible an ASF-like epidemic, provide a detailed explanation of the surveillance and intervention strategies that generated the synthetic data, and describe the different management strategies that were assessed by the competing modelling teams. We then outline the different technical steps of the challenge as well as its environment. Finally, we synthesize the lessons we learnt along the way to guide future modelling challenges in animal health.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000585EpidemiologyControl measuresAgent-based modelSpatial modelSwine-wild boar contacts |
| spellingShingle | Sébastien Picault Timothée Vergne Matthieu Mancini Servane Bareille Pauline Ezanno The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation Epidemics Epidemiology Control measures Agent-based model Spatial model Swine-wild boar contacts |
| title | The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation |
| title_full | The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation |
| title_fullStr | The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation |
| title_full_unstemmed | The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation |
| title_short | The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation |
| title_sort | african swine fever modelling challenge objectives model description and synthetic data generation |
| topic | Epidemiology Control measures Agent-based model Spatial model Swine-wild boar contacts |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436522000585 |
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