Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations
The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissi...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017-11-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/5053/2017/bg-14-5053-2017.pdf |
| Summary: | The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO<sub>2</sub>
emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to
account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem
processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs,
however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of
using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain
historical cumulative LULCC emissions (E<sub>LUC</sub><sup>c</sup>) from an
ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated
vegetation biomass and E<sub>LUC</sub><sup>c</sup>. This method is applicable
on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of
E<sub>LUC</sub><sup>c</sup> range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012.
After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate
of 155 ± 50 PgC (1<i>σ</i> Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC
emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but
significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach
independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations,
giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The
uncertainty in the constrained E<sub>LUC</sub><sup>c</sup> is still
relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and
thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass
observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint
method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation
activities. |
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| ISSN: | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |