Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems
The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2008-10-01
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| Series: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/15/793/2008/npg-15-793-2008.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818963342158462976 |
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| author | Z. Ye W. W. Hsieh |
| author_facet | Z. Ye W. W. Hsieh |
| author_sort | Z. Ye |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to longer-period oscillations, thus greater predictability. In the Lorenz (1963) 3-component chaos system, by adjusting the model parameters to increase the nonlinearity of the system, a similar increase in predictability was found. Thus in the ENSO and Lorenz systems, enhanced nonlinearity from changes in the governing equations could produce longer period oscillations with increased predictability. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d2aefa23b074e2ebcd4033181bdbbf8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T12:43:41Z |
| publishDate | 2008-10-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d2aefa23b074e2ebcd4033181bdbbf82022-12-21T19:40:22ZengCopernicus PublicationsNonlinear Processes in Geophysics1023-58091607-79462008-10-01155793801Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systemsZ. YeW. W. HsiehThe presence of nonlinear terms in the governing equations of a dynamical system usually leads to the loss of predictability, e.g. in numerical weather prediction. However, for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, in an intermediate coupled equatorial Pacific model run under the 1961–1975 and the 1981–1995 climatologies, the latter climatology led to longer-period oscillations, thus greater predictability. In the Lorenz (1963) 3-component chaos system, by adjusting the model parameters to increase the nonlinearity of the system, a similar increase in predictability was found. Thus in the ENSO and Lorenz systems, enhanced nonlinearity from changes in the governing equations could produce longer period oscillations with increased predictability.http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/15/793/2008/npg-15-793-2008.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Z. Ye W. W. Hsieh Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| title | Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| title_full | Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| title_short | Enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in ENSO and Lorenz systems |
| title_sort | enhancing predictability by increasing nonlinearity in enso and lorenz systems |
| url | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/15/793/2008/npg-15-793-2008.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zye enhancingpredictabilitybyincreasingnonlinearityinensoandlorenzsystems AT wwhsieh enhancingpredictabilitybyincreasingnonlinearityinensoandlorenzsystems |