Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine
External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to im...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Investment Management & Financial Innovations |
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| Online Access: | https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/16337/IMFI_2022_01_Petrushenko.pdf |
| _version_ | 1826907957388902400 |
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| author | Yuriy Petrushenko Maxim Korneyev Natalia Nebaba Olena Banchuk-Petrosova Anna Bohorodytska |
| author_facet | Yuriy Petrushenko Maxim Korneyev Natalia Nebaba Olena Banchuk-Petrosova Anna Bohorodytska |
| author_sort | Yuriy Petrushenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | External public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development.
AcknowledgmentThe article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001). |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d39bf020093472b9b0f1aa98f488dce |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1810-4967 1812-9358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-17T09:15:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | LLC "CPC "Business Perspectives" |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Investment Management & Financial Innovations |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d39bf020093472b9b0f1aa98f488dce2025-01-02T14:22:59ZengLLC "CPC "Business Perspectives"Investment Management & Financial Innovations1810-49671812-93582022-04-0119136036910.21511/imfi.19(1).2022.2816337Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from UkraineYuriy Petrushenko0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9902-7577Maxim Korneyev1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4005-5335Natalia Nebaba2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1264-106XOlena Banchuk-Petrosova3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8426-1475Anna Bohorodytska4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3653-3370Doctor of Economics, Professor, Department of International Economic Relations, Sumy State UniversityDoctor of Economics, Professor, Department of International Economic Relations and Regional Studies, University of Customs and FinanceDoctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Department of International Economic Relations and Regional Studies, University of Customs and Finance, Ukraine. the National University “Odessa Law Academy”Ph.D. in Public Administration, Associate Professor, Department of Constitutional, International Law and Public Law Disciplines, Kyiv Institute of Intellectual Property and Law of the National University “Odessa Law Academy”Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of International Economic Relations and Regional Studies, University of Customs and FinanceExternal public debt is not only a means of raising funds to finance public needs, but also an effective tool for stabilizing a country`s economic development, the assessment and analysis of which allows making effective management decisions at the state level and developing effective measures to improve the economic and debt situation. The paper aims to assess the impact of external public debt on Ukraine’s economic development indicators (GDP, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves). In order to achieve the stated goal distributed lag models are used, which allow modeling a country’s economic development (according to key indicators) within certain forecast scenarios. The study covers the period from 2009 to 2021. An analysis of the dynamics of external public debt in Ukraine led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in external debt in recent years. Econometric models with a distributed lag of three years are built and the results of the influence of external public debt in different time periods are analyzed. The average lag in the built models is about one and a half years (for GDP) and two and a half years (for foreign direct investment). This value indicates that the average change (increase/decrease) in external public debt will change economic development over time. A positive conclusion is made on the possibility of not only assessing the time lag between the indicators, but also on the prospects for forecasting both the public debt and key indicators of Ukraine`s economic development. AcknowledgmentThe article was published as part of research projects “Convergence of economic and educational transformations in the digital society: modeling the impact on regional and national security” (No. 0121U109553) and “Reforming the lifelong learning system in Ukraine for the prevention of the labor emigration: a coopetition model of institutional partnership” (No. 0120U102001).https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/16337/IMFI_2022_01_Petrushenko.pdfdebt securitydistributed lag modelseconomic developmentexternal public debtmodelingUkraine |
| spellingShingle | Yuriy Petrushenko Maxim Korneyev Natalia Nebaba Olena Banchuk-Petrosova Anna Bohorodytska Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine Investment Management & Financial Innovations debt security distributed lag models economic development external public debt modeling Ukraine |
| title | Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine |
| title_full | Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine |
| title_short | Assessment of the external debt impact on a country’s economic development indicators: Evidence from Ukraine |
| title_sort | assessment of the external debt impact on a country s economic development indicators evidence from ukraine |
| topic | debt security distributed lag models economic development external public debt modeling Ukraine |
| url | https://www.businessperspectives.org/images/pdf/applications/publishing/templates/article/assets/16337/IMFI_2022_01_Petrushenko.pdf |
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