On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19
In this paper, we discuss an explicit model function that can estimate the total number of deaths in the population, and particularly, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the United States due to the current Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results to two related existing models based...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/5/655 |
| _version_ | 1827717951808077824 |
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| author | Hoang Pham |
| author_facet | Hoang Pham |
| author_sort | Hoang Pham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we discuss an explicit model function that can estimate the total number of deaths in the population, and particularly, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the United States due to the current Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results to two related existing models based on a new criteria and several existing criteria for model selection. The results show the proposed model fits significantly better than the other two related models based on the U.S. Covid-19 death data. We observe that the errors of the fitted data and the predicted data points on the total number of deaths in the U.S. on the last available data point and the next coming day are less than 0.5% and 2.0%, respectively. The results show very encouraging predictability for the model. The new model predicts that the maximum total number of deaths will be approximately 62,100 across the United States due to the Covid-19 virus, and with a 95% confidence that the expected total death toll will be between 60,951 and 63,249 deaths based on the data until 22 April, 2020. If there is a significant change in the coming days due to various testing strategies, social-distancing policies, the reopening of community strategies, or a stay-home policy, the predicted death tolls will definitely change. Future work can be explored further to apply the proposed model to global Covid-19 death data and to other applications, including human population mortality, the spread of disease, and different topics such as movie reviews in recommender systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T20:13:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d3f1fab0c45459f8d2f9968ccba52d4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2227-7390 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T20:13:45Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d3f1fab0c45459f8d2f9968ccba52d42023-11-19T22:44:14ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902020-04-018565510.3390/math8050655On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19Hoang Pham0Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USAIn this paper, we discuss an explicit model function that can estimate the total number of deaths in the population, and particularly, estimate the cumulative number of deaths in the United States due to the current Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results to two related existing models based on a new criteria and several existing criteria for model selection. The results show the proposed model fits significantly better than the other two related models based on the U.S. Covid-19 death data. We observe that the errors of the fitted data and the predicted data points on the total number of deaths in the U.S. on the last available data point and the next coming day are less than 0.5% and 2.0%, respectively. The results show very encouraging predictability for the model. The new model predicts that the maximum total number of deaths will be approximately 62,100 across the United States due to the Covid-19 virus, and with a 95% confidence that the expected total death toll will be between 60,951 and 63,249 deaths based on the data until 22 April, 2020. If there is a significant change in the coming days due to various testing strategies, social-distancing policies, the reopening of community strategies, or a stay-home policy, the predicted death tolls will definitely change. Future work can be explored further to apply the proposed model to global Covid-19 death data and to other applications, including human population mortality, the spread of disease, and different topics such as movie reviews in recommender systems.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/5/655model predictionmodel selectionnumber of death estimationmodel criteriaCovid-19 |
| spellingShingle | Hoang Pham On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 Mathematics model prediction model selection number of death estimation model criteria Covid-19 |
| title | On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 |
| title_full | On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 |
| title_fullStr | On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 |
| title_short | On Estimating the Number of Deaths Related to Covid-19 |
| title_sort | on estimating the number of deaths related to covid 19 |
| topic | model prediction model selection number of death estimation model criteria Covid-19 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/5/655 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hoangpham onestimatingthenumberofdeathsrelatedtocovid19 |