Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China
Abstract Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10490 |
| _version_ | 1797542889136324608 |
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| author | De Tuan Liu Jian Ying Chen Wei Bang Sun |
| author_facet | De Tuan Liu Jian Ying Chen Wei Bang Sun |
| author_sort | De Tuan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as global biodiversity hotspots. However, information on the response of maple species to climate change in these regions was limited. Therefore, we selected two maple species that occur there and assessed changes in their habitat suitability under past, present and future climate scenarios in Biomod2. The results showed that temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most critical factor influencing their potential distributions. The distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Acer caesium and Acer stachyophyllum was predicted to be larger during the LGM compared to the present. Under the current climate scenario, the largest areas of potentially suitable habitat for these species were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan, the Qinling‐Daba Mountains in southern Gansu and the Wumeng‐Daliang Mountains in northeastern Yunnan, western Guizhou and southeastern Sichuan. Under future climate change scenarios, the predicted loss of suitable habitat areas for these two species ranged from 13.78% to 45.71% and the increase ranged from 18.88% to 57.98%, with an overall increasing trend. The suitable habitat areas were predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of the QTP under both the pessimistic and optimistic future climate change scenarios in the 2050s and the 2070s, which became evident as global warming intensified, particularly in the eastern QTP and the Hengduan Mountains. Our results highlight the possibility that the diverse topography along altitudinal gradients in the QTP and the Hengduan Mountains may potentially mitigate the range contraction of mountain plants in response to climate warming. These findings provide a basis for planning conservation areas, planting and species conservation in the mountainous areas of southern China under the anticipated global warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:36:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d48918086cc47f2a25fce77108c37f3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:36:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d48918086cc47f2a25fce77108c37f32023-11-21T07:26:25ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582023-09-01139n/an/a10.1002/ece3.10490Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern ChinaDe Tuan Liu0Jian Ying Chen1Wei Bang Sun2Yunnan Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming ChinaForest Seed and Seedling General Station of Yunnan Province Kunming ChinaYunnan Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming ChinaAbstract Climate change is a major factor affecting biodiversity and species distribution, particularly of montane species. Species may respond to climate change by shifting their range to higher elevations. The southeastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Hengduan Mountains are considered as global biodiversity hotspots. However, information on the response of maple species to climate change in these regions was limited. Therefore, we selected two maple species that occur there and assessed changes in their habitat suitability under past, present and future climate scenarios in Biomod2. The results showed that temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most critical factor influencing their potential distributions. The distribution of potentially suitable habitat for Acer caesium and Acer stachyophyllum was predicted to be larger during the LGM compared to the present. Under the current climate scenario, the largest areas of potentially suitable habitat for these species were mainly located in southeastern Tibet, the Hengduan Mountains in northwestern Yunnan and western Sichuan, the Qinling‐Daba Mountains in southern Gansu and the Wumeng‐Daliang Mountains in northeastern Yunnan, western Guizhou and southeastern Sichuan. Under future climate change scenarios, the predicted loss of suitable habitat areas for these two species ranged from 13.78% to 45.71% and the increase ranged from 18.88% to 57.98%, with an overall increasing trend. The suitable habitat areas were predicted to shift towards the eastern parts of the QTP under both the pessimistic and optimistic future climate change scenarios in the 2050s and the 2070s, which became evident as global warming intensified, particularly in the eastern QTP and the Hengduan Mountains. Our results highlight the possibility that the diverse topography along altitudinal gradients in the QTP and the Hengduan Mountains may potentially mitigate the range contraction of mountain plants in response to climate warming. These findings provide a basis for planning conservation areas, planting and species conservation in the mountainous areas of southern China under the anticipated global warming.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10490distribution modellingglobal warmingthe Hengduan Mountainsthe Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau |
| spellingShingle | De Tuan Liu Jian Ying Chen Wei Bang Sun Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China Ecology and Evolution distribution modelling global warming the Hengduan Mountains the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau |
| title | Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China |
| title_full | Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China |
| title_fullStr | Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China |
| title_short | Distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern China |
| title_sort | distributional responses to climate change of two maple species in southern china |
| topic | distribution modelling global warming the Hengduan Mountains the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10490 |
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