| Summary: | Climate plays a significant role in shaping ecosystem-level carbon sinks. Research on the mechanisms of climate impacts on carbon sinks can contribute to the achievement of carbon neutrality. Investigating the mechanisms by which climate impact on carbon sinks in ecological spaces in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, one of the most important urban clusters in China, is of great significance. This study employed spatial autocorrelation and econometric models to explore how various climatic factors impact net primary productivity (which is used to represent carbon sink capacity) on a spatial scale. We found an increasing trend in NPP across the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020, with marked spatial clustering. Climatic factors exhibited the best fit with the spatial Durbin model, except for average annual precipitation. The remaining factors had significant effects on NPP, showing spatial spillover effects. Results also showed that the average annual temperature, evaporation, and relative humidity had positive impacts on NPP at a local scale but adverse effects at a regional scale. Average annual sunshine duration and the ground temperature had negative effects on NPP locally but promoted effects regionally. Furthermore, the average annual wind speed negatively impacted both local- and regional-scale NPP. This research provides insights into how climate affects carbon sinks on a small spatial scale, offering important references for making policy decisions and improving the accuracy of carbon cycling simulations.
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