Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period
Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is associated with a 30-day mortality rate of 50% and is one of the most life-threatening cerebrovascular diseases. Objective. Toevaluatetheprognosticsignificance and informativeness of some clinical indicators, highlighting the most optimal and reliable potential f...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Zaporizhia Medical Academy of Post-Graduate Education Ministry of Health of Ukraine
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Сучасні медичні технології |
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| Online Access: | https://zmapo-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/63 |
| _version_ | 1818250070987898880 |
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| author | K. Y. Polkovnikova |
| author_facet | K. Y. Polkovnikova |
| author_sort | K. Y. Polkovnikova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is associated with a 30-day mortality rate of 50% and is one of the most life-threatening cerebrovascular diseases.
Objective. Toevaluatetheprognosticsignificance and informativeness of some clinical indicators, highlighting the most optimal and reliable potential factors in the development of a mathematical equation for calculating the personal probability of complications in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage of atraumatic etiology.
Materials and methods. A clinical experimental study involved 87 patients with SAH, 44 were men, 43 – women. On the first day after SAH, half of the patients were hospitalized – 46 people (52,87%).
Results. The constructed model for calculating the probability of events such as secondary ischemia, hydrocephalus, or cerebral vasospasm over the next 14 days indicates the correctness and adequacy of the constructed model of logistic regression.
The personal probability of a complication is calculated by the formula: p = 1 / (1 + e-z), where p is the % probability of a complication of SAH; z = –45,5 + 17,5* Copeptine –0.44 × Na + 0,06 × Age + 1,99 × Ball (Hunt-Hess).
Conclusions. The prognostic model allows us to consider that secondary ischemia and cerebral vasospasm are not only predictors of poor prognosis and potential factors for the formation of complications, but also are indicators for the correct determination of individual cumulative risk in SAH. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:46:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d5d2a2687734562baee48f6d0c52f5b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-9367 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:46:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Zaporizhia Medical Academy of Post-Graduate Education Ministry of Health of Ukraine |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Сучасні медичні технології |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d5d2a2687734562baee48f6d0c52f5b2022-12-22T00:19:44ZengZaporizhia Medical Academy of Post-Graduate Education Ministry of Health of UkraineСучасні медичні технології2072-93672020-04-011(44)667110.34287/MMT.1(44).2020.1063Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute periodK. Y. Polkovnikova0Comunal Institution «Zaporizhzhia Regional Clinical Hospital» of Zaporihzhy Regional CouncilSubarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is associated with a 30-day mortality rate of 50% and is one of the most life-threatening cerebrovascular diseases. Objective. Toevaluatetheprognosticsignificance and informativeness of some clinical indicators, highlighting the most optimal and reliable potential factors in the development of a mathematical equation for calculating the personal probability of complications in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage of atraumatic etiology. Materials and methods. A clinical experimental study involved 87 patients with SAH, 44 were men, 43 – women. On the first day after SAH, half of the patients were hospitalized – 46 people (52,87%). Results. The constructed model for calculating the probability of events such as secondary ischemia, hydrocephalus, or cerebral vasospasm over the next 14 days indicates the correctness and adequacy of the constructed model of logistic regression. The personal probability of a complication is calculated by the formula: p = 1 / (1 + e-z), where p is the % probability of a complication of SAH; z = –45,5 + 17,5* Copeptine –0.44 × Na + 0,06 × Age + 1,99 × Ball (Hunt-Hess). Conclusions. The prognostic model allows us to consider that secondary ischemia and cerebral vasospasm are not only predictors of poor prognosis and potential factors for the formation of complications, but also are indicators for the correct determination of individual cumulative risk in SAH.https://zmapo-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/63notraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhagec. s. ogilvycopeptinsiadh syndromehyponatremiaprognosislogistic regression |
| spellingShingle | K. Y. Polkovnikova Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period Сучасні медичні технології notraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage c. s. ogilvy copeptin siadh syndrome hyponatremia prognosis logistic regression |
| title | Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| title_full | Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| title_fullStr | Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| title_full_unstemmed | Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| title_short | Possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| title_sort | possibilities of mathematical definition of unfavourable course of subarachnoid haemorrhage in the acute period |
| topic | notraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage c. s. ogilvy copeptin siadh syndrome hyponatremia prognosis logistic regression |
| url | https://zmapo-journal.com/index.php/journal/article/view/63 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kypolkovnikova possibilitiesofmathematicaldefinitionofunfavourablecourseofsubarachnoidhaemorrhageintheacuteperiod |