Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios
This paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and th...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/11/1778 |
| _version_ | 1797491214754250752 |
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| author | Jinqiu Sun Haofang Yan Zhenxin Bao Guoqing Wang |
| author_facet | Jinqiu Sun Haofang Yan Zhenxin Bao Guoqing Wang |
| author_sort | Jinqiu Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the ensemble projection of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. The results show that the calibrated SWAT model is applicable to the Qinhuai River Basin and can accurately characterize the runoff process at daily and monthly scales with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), correlation coefficients (R), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) in calibration and validation periods being above 0.75 and relative errors (RE) are ±3.5%. In comparison to the baseline of 1980–2015, the mean annual precipitation in the future period (2025–2060) under the three emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 will probably increase by 5.64%, 2.60%, and 6.68% respectively. Correspondingly, the multiple-year average of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6–2.1 °C and 1.4–2.0 °C, respectively, in 2025–2060. As a result of climate change, the average annual runoff will increase by 16.24%, 8.84%, and 17.96%, respectively, in the period of 2025–2060 under the three SSPs scenarios. The increase in runoff in the future will provide sufficient water supply to support socioeconomic development. However, increases in both rainfall and runoff also imply an increased risk of flooding due to climate change. Therefore, the impact of climate change on flooding in the Qinhuai River Basin should be fully considered in the planning of flood control and the basin’s development. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:44:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8d7c276443424b29b514cbdfc85353e0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:44:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-8d7c276443424b29b514cbdfc85353e02023-11-23T15:02:43ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412022-06-011411177810.3390/w14111778Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 ScenariosJinqiu Sun0Haofang Yan1Zhenxin Bao2Guoqing Wang3State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, ChinaResearch Centre of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, ChinaThis paper looks at regional water security in eastern China in the context of global climate change. The response of runoff to climate change in the Qinhuai River Basin, a typical river in eastern China, was quantitatively investigated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the ensemble projection of multiple general circulation models (GCMs) under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios. The results show that the calibrated SWAT model is applicable to the Qinhuai River Basin and can accurately characterize the runoff process at daily and monthly scales with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), correlation coefficients (R), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) in calibration and validation periods being above 0.75 and relative errors (RE) are ±3.5%. In comparison to the baseline of 1980–2015, the mean annual precipitation in the future period (2025–2060) under the three emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 will probably increase by 5.64%, 2.60%, and 6.68% respectively. Correspondingly, the multiple-year average of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6–2.1 °C and 1.4–2.0 °C, respectively, in 2025–2060. As a result of climate change, the average annual runoff will increase by 16.24%, 8.84%, and 17.96%, respectively, in the period of 2025–2060 under the three SSPs scenarios. The increase in runoff in the future will provide sufficient water supply to support socioeconomic development. However, increases in both rainfall and runoff also imply an increased risk of flooding due to climate change. Therefore, the impact of climate change on flooding in the Qinhuai River Basin should be fully considered in the planning of flood control and the basin’s development.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/11/1778climate changeCMIP6hydrological responserunoff simulationSWAT modelthe Qinhuai River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Jinqiu Sun Haofang Yan Zhenxin Bao Guoqing Wang Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios Water climate change CMIP6 hydrological response runoff simulation SWAT model the Qinhuai River Basin |
| title | Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_full | Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_short | Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_sort | investigating impacts of climate change on runoff from the qinhuai river by using the swat model and cmip6 scenarios |
| topic | climate change CMIP6 hydrological response runoff simulation SWAT model the Qinhuai River Basin |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/11/1778 |
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