Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change
In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and ma...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e |
| _version_ | 1797747467921391616 |
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| author | Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion |
| author_facet | Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion |
| author_sort | Kristin Richter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e01 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:03Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-8ea49806ed2c4e04a9fd630eb47a1e012023-08-09T15:09:17ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909407910.1088/1748-9326/ab986eDetecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level changeKristin Richter0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0200-8765Benoit Meyssignac1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6325-9843Aimée B A Slangen2Angélique Melet3John A Church4Xavier Fettweis5Ben Marzeion6Cécile Agosta7Stefan R M Ligtenberg8Giorgio Spada9Matthew D Palmer10https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7422-198XChristopher D Roberts11Nicolas Champollion12Institute for Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences , Universität Innsbruck, Austria; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, Norway; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS , Toulouse, FranceDepartment of Estuarine and Delta Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research , Yerseke, The NetherlandsMercator Ocean , Ramonville St Agne, FranceClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales , Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaDepartment of Geography, University of Liège , Liège, BelgiumInstitute of Geography, University of Bremen , Bremen, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Liège , Liège, BelgiumInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsUniversity of Urbino , Urbino, ItalyMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomEuropean Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts , Reading, United KingdomInstitut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, CNRS, IRD, Univ. Grenoble Alpes , Grenoble, France; Bern International Space Science Institute , Hallerstrasse 6, 3012, Bern, SwitzerlandIn this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986eforced trendsinternal variabilitydetectionsea-level rise |
| spellingShingle | Kristin Richter Benoit Meyssignac Aimée B A Slangen Angélique Melet John A Church Xavier Fettweis Ben Marzeion Cécile Agosta Stefan R M Ligtenberg Giorgio Spada Matthew D Palmer Christopher D Roberts Nicolas Champollion Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change Environmental Research Letters forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise |
| title | Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
| title_full | Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
| title_fullStr | Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
| title_short | Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change |
| title_sort | detecting a forced signal in satellite era sea level change |
| topic | forced trends internal variability detection sea-level rise |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e |
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