Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China
Background: Considering its high prevalence, estimating the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older Chinese adults is of particular interest. This study was conducted to develop a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China. Methods: Our study i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024005577 |
| _version_ | 1797328675569401856 |
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| author | Mina Huang Yue Guo Zipeng Zhou Chang Xu Kun Liu Yongzhu Wang Zhanpeng Guo |
| author_facet | Mina Huang Yue Guo Zipeng Zhou Chang Xu Kun Liu Yongzhu Wang Zhanpeng Guo |
| author_sort | Mina Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Considering its high prevalence, estimating the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older Chinese adults is of particular interest. This study was conducted to develop a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China. Methods: Our study included a total of 9599 participants utilising data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants were randomly assigned to training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify the potential predictors of arthritis. Based on the results of the multivariate binary logistic regression, a nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy and discrimination ability were assessed using calibration curve analysis, while decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefit rate. Results: A total of 9599 participants were included in the study, of which 6716 and 2883 were assigned to the training and validation groups, respectively. A nomogram was constructed to include age, hypertension, heart diseases, gender, sleep time, body mass index (BMI), residence address, the parts of joint pain, and trouble with body pains. The results of the ROC curve suggested that the prediction model had a moderate discrimination ability (AUC >0.7). The calibration curve of the prediction model demonstrated a good predictive accuracy. The DCA curves revealed a favourable net benefit for the prediction model. Conclusions: The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity, and can help community physicians and clinicians to preliminarily assess the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older community-dwelling adults. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:55:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8ebdc62b9cc34617b32f4f968fc5944e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T06:55:07Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-8ebdc62b9cc34617b32f4f968fc5944e2024-02-03T06:37:46ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-01-01102e24526Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in ChinaMina Huang0Yue Guo1Zipeng Zhou2Chang Xu3Kun Liu4Yongzhu Wang5Zhanpeng Guo6Department of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China; School of Nursing, Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaSchool of Medical College, Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, ChinaDepartment of Orthopedics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China; Corresponding author.Background: Considering its high prevalence, estimating the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older Chinese adults is of particular interest. This study was conducted to develop a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China. Methods: Our study included a total of 9599 participants utilising data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Participants were randomly assigned to training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were used to identify the potential predictors of arthritis. Based on the results of the multivariate binary logistic regression, a nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The accuracy and discrimination ability were assessed using calibration curve analysis, while decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the net clinical benefit rate. Results: A total of 9599 participants were included in the study, of which 6716 and 2883 were assigned to the training and validation groups, respectively. A nomogram was constructed to include age, hypertension, heart diseases, gender, sleep time, body mass index (BMI), residence address, the parts of joint pain, and trouble with body pains. The results of the ROC curve suggested that the prediction model had a moderate discrimination ability (AUC >0.7). The calibration curve of the prediction model demonstrated a good predictive accuracy. The DCA curves revealed a favourable net benefit for the prediction model. Conclusions: The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity, and can help community physicians and clinicians to preliminarily assess the risk of arthritis in middle-aged and older community-dwelling adults.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024005577Prediction modelNomogramArthritisValidationCommunity-dwelling |
| spellingShingle | Mina Huang Yue Guo Zipeng Zhou Chang Xu Kun Liu Yongzhu Wang Zhanpeng Guo Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China Heliyon Prediction model Nomogram Arthritis Validation Community-dwelling |
| title | Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China |
| title_full | Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China |
| title_short | Development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China |
| title_sort | development and validation of a risk prediction model for arthritis in community dwelling middle aged and older adults in china |
| topic | Prediction model Nomogram Arthritis Validation Community-dwelling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024005577 |
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