Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China
Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organi...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/126 |
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| author | Lijuan Zhang Lianqi Zhu Yanhong Li Wenbo Zhu Yingyong Chen |
| author_facet | Lijuan Zhang Lianqi Zhu Yanhong Li Wenbo Zhu Yingyong Chen |
| author_sort | Lijuan Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. <i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of <i>C. glauca</i> under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of <i>C. glauca</i>. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of <i>C. glauca</i>, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect <i>C. glauca</i> in the range contraction areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:27:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8ecea09fc4914448993aadc781bbc45a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:27:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-8ecea09fc4914448993aadc781bbc45a2023-11-23T13:48:16ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072022-01-0113112610.3390/f13010126Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in ChinaLijuan Zhang0Lianqi Zhu1Yanhong Li2Wenbo Zhu3Yingyong Chen4College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, ChinaClimate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. <i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of <i>C. glauca</i> under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of <i>C. glauca</i>. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of <i>C. glauca</i>, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect <i>C. glauca</i> in the range contraction areas.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/126<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) OerstedMaxent modellingclimate scenariosspecies distribution modelsuitable habitats |
| spellingShingle | Lijuan Zhang Lianqi Zhu Yanhong Li Wenbo Zhu Yingyong Chen Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China Forests <i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted Maxent modelling climate scenarios species distribution model suitable habitats |
| title | Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China |
| title_full | Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China |
| title_fullStr | Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China |
| title_short | Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (<i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China |
| title_sort | maxent modelling predicts a shift in suitable habitats of a subtropical evergreen tree i cyclobalanopsis glauca i thunberg oersted under climate change scenarios in china |
| topic | <i>Cyclobalanopsis glauca</i> (Thunberg) Oersted Maxent modelling climate scenarios species distribution model suitable habitats |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/1/126 |
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