What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?

Previous studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed w...

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Main Authors: Dana Ehlert, Kirsten Zickfeld
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2017-01-01
Series:Environmental Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a
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author Dana Ehlert
Kirsten Zickfeld
author_facet Dana Ehlert
Kirsten Zickfeld
author_sort Dana Ehlert
collection DOAJ
description Previous studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed warming is of importance because it has implication for the estimation of carbon budgets compatible with temperature targets. Here, we investigate the effect of the state of thermal and bio-geochemical equilibration at the time emissions are set to zero on the committed warming as the latter is determined by the balance of these two equilibration processes. We find that the effect of thermal equilibration, expressed as fraction of realized warming, dominates over the bio-geochemical equilibration, expressed as ratio of the airborne fraction to the equilibrium airborne fraction. This leads to a positive warming commitment, and a commitment that declines the later emissions are zeroed along a trajectory of constant atmospheric CO _2 concentration. We furthermore show that the scenario prior to zeroed emissions has the strongest effect on the warming commitment, compared to the time of zeroed emissions and the time horizon over which the commitment is calculated.
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spelling doaj.art-8f106f3b1d8440f88f16303729024d952023-08-09T14:30:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112101500210.1088/1748-9326/aa564aWhat determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?Dana Ehlert0Kirsten Zickfeld1Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University , Burnaby, British Columbia, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Simon Fraser University , Burnaby, British Columbia, CanadaPrevious studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed warming is of importance because it has implication for the estimation of carbon budgets compatible with temperature targets. Here, we investigate the effect of the state of thermal and bio-geochemical equilibration at the time emissions are set to zero on the committed warming as the latter is determined by the balance of these two equilibration processes. We find that the effect of thermal equilibration, expressed as fraction of realized warming, dominates over the bio-geochemical equilibration, expressed as ratio of the airborne fraction to the equilibrium airborne fraction. This leads to a positive warming commitment, and a commitment that declines the later emissions are zeroed along a trajectory of constant atmospheric CO _2 concentration. We furthermore show that the scenario prior to zeroed emissions has the strongest effect on the warming commitment, compared to the time of zeroed emissions and the time horizon over which the commitment is calculated.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564awarming commitmentglobal carbon budgetEarth system modelling
spellingShingle Dana Ehlert
Kirsten Zickfeld
What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
Environmental Research Letters
warming commitment
global carbon budget
Earth system modelling
title What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
title_full What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
title_fullStr What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
title_full_unstemmed What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
title_short What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
title_sort what determines the warming commitment after cessation of co2 emissions
topic warming commitment
global carbon budget
Earth system modelling
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a
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