What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?
Previous studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed w...
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a |
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author | Dana Ehlert Kirsten Zickfeld |
author_facet | Dana Ehlert Kirsten Zickfeld |
author_sort | Dana Ehlert |
collection | DOAJ |
description | Previous studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed warming is of importance because it has implication for the estimation of carbon budgets compatible with temperature targets. Here, we investigate the effect of the state of thermal and bio-geochemical equilibration at the time emissions are set to zero on the committed warming as the latter is determined by the balance of these two equilibration processes. We find that the effect of thermal equilibration, expressed as fraction of realized warming, dominates over the bio-geochemical equilibration, expressed as ratio of the airborne fraction to the equilibrium airborne fraction. This leads to a positive warming commitment, and a commitment that declines the later emissions are zeroed along a trajectory of constant atmospheric CO _2 concentration. We furthermore show that the scenario prior to zeroed emissions has the strongest effect on the warming commitment, compared to the time of zeroed emissions and the time horizon over which the commitment is calculated. |
first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:46Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-8f106f3b1d8440f88f16303729024d95 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 1748-9326 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:46Z |
publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
publisher | IOP Publishing |
record_format | Article |
series | Environmental Research Letters |
spelling | doaj.art-8f106f3b1d8440f88f16303729024d952023-08-09T14:30:52ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112101500210.1088/1748-9326/aa564aWhat determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions?Dana Ehlert0Kirsten Zickfeld1Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University , Burnaby, British Columbia, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Simon Fraser University , Burnaby, British Columbia, CanadaPrevious studies have shown that global mean surface air temperature remains elevated after cessation of CO _2 emissions. However, studies differ in whether the temperature continues to increase, slowly decreases, or remains constant after cessation of emissions. An understanding of this committed warming is of importance because it has implication for the estimation of carbon budgets compatible with temperature targets. Here, we investigate the effect of the state of thermal and bio-geochemical equilibration at the time emissions are set to zero on the committed warming as the latter is determined by the balance of these two equilibration processes. We find that the effect of thermal equilibration, expressed as fraction of realized warming, dominates over the bio-geochemical equilibration, expressed as ratio of the airborne fraction to the equilibrium airborne fraction. This leads to a positive warming commitment, and a commitment that declines the later emissions are zeroed along a trajectory of constant atmospheric CO _2 concentration. We furthermore show that the scenario prior to zeroed emissions has the strongest effect on the warming commitment, compared to the time of zeroed emissions and the time horizon over which the commitment is calculated.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564awarming commitmentglobal carbon budgetEarth system modelling |
spellingShingle | Dana Ehlert Kirsten Zickfeld What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? Environmental Research Letters warming commitment global carbon budget Earth system modelling |
title | What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? |
title_full | What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? |
title_fullStr | What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? |
title_full_unstemmed | What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? |
title_short | What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO2 emissions? |
title_sort | what determines the warming commitment after cessation of co2 emissions |
topic | warming commitment global carbon budget Earth system modelling |
url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a |
work_keys_str_mv | AT danaehlert whatdeterminesthewarmingcommitmentaftercessationofco2emissions AT kirstenzickfeld whatdeterminesthewarmingcommitmentaftercessationofco2emissions |