Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead
Most climate forecast agencies failed to make successful predictions of the strong 2020/2021 La Niña event before May 2020. The western equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) before the 2020 spring failed to predict this La Niña event because of the near neutral state of the equatorial Pacific O...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1141961/full |
| _version_ | 1797866037585117184 |
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| author | Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Jing Wang Jing Wang Jing Wang |
| author_facet | Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Jing Wang Jing Wang Jing Wang |
| author_sort | Xia Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Most climate forecast agencies failed to make successful predictions of the strong 2020/2021 La Niña event before May 2020. The western equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) before the 2020 spring failed to predict this La Niña event because of the near neutral state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the year before. A strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event took place in the fall of 2019, which is used as a precursor for the La Niña prediction in this study. We used observational data to construct the precursory relationship between negative sea level anomalies (SLA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) in boreal fall and negative Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies index one year later. The application of the above relation to the prediction of the 2020/2021 La Niña was a great success. The dynamics behind are the Indo-Pacific “oceanic channel” connection via the Indian Ocean Kelvin wave propagation through the Indonesian seas, with the atmospheric bridge playing a secondary role. The high predictability of La Niña across the spring barrier if a positive IOD should occur in the previous year suggests that the negative SETIO SLA in fall is a much better and longer predictor for this type of La Niña prediction than the WWV. In comparison, positive SETIO SLA lead either El Niño or La Niña by one year, suggesting uncertainty of El Niño predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:18:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-8f284f0869a44ce3b56fa7d540d40c6d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:18:40Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-8f284f0869a44ce3b56fa7d540d40c6d2023-03-22T04:55:51ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452023-03-011010.3389/fmars.2023.11419611141961Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year leadXia Zhao0Xia Zhao1Xia Zhao2Dongliang Yuan3Dongliang Yuan4Dongliang Yuan5Dongliang Yuan6Dongliang Yuan7Jing Wang8Jing Wang9Jing Wang10Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, ChinaQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, ChinaQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao, ChinaShandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, ChinaQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, ChinaUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaMost climate forecast agencies failed to make successful predictions of the strong 2020/2021 La Niña event before May 2020. The western equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) before the 2020 spring failed to predict this La Niña event because of the near neutral state of the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the year before. A strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event took place in the fall of 2019, which is used as a precursor for the La Niña prediction in this study. We used observational data to construct the precursory relationship between negative sea level anomalies (SLA) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) in boreal fall and negative Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies index one year later. The application of the above relation to the prediction of the 2020/2021 La Niña was a great success. The dynamics behind are the Indo-Pacific “oceanic channel” connection via the Indian Ocean Kelvin wave propagation through the Indonesian seas, with the atmospheric bridge playing a secondary role. The high predictability of La Niña across the spring barrier if a positive IOD should occur in the previous year suggests that the negative SETIO SLA in fall is a much better and longer predictor for this type of La Niña prediction than the WWV. In comparison, positive SETIO SLA lead either El Niño or La Niña by one year, suggesting uncertainty of El Niño predictions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1141961/fullprecursor of La Niñasea level anomaliessoutheastern tropical IndianIndian Ocean Dipoleoceanic channelupwelling |
| spellingShingle | Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Xia Zhao Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Dongliang Yuan Jing Wang Jing Wang Jing Wang Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead Frontiers in Marine Science precursor of La Niña sea level anomalies southeastern tropical Indian Indian Ocean Dipole oceanic channel upwelling |
| title | Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead |
| title_full | Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead |
| title_fullStr | Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead |
| title_short | Sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean as a potential predictor of La Niña beyond one-year lead |
| title_sort | sea level anomalies in the southeastern tropical indian ocean as a potential predictor of la nina beyond one year lead |
| topic | precursor of La Niña sea level anomalies southeastern tropical Indian Indian Ocean Dipole oceanic channel upwelling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1141961/full |
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